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Good morning, welcome to Axios today. It's Tuesday, July 19. I'm Naila Budu. Here's what you need to

know today. How the end of Roe v Wade made overwhelmed foster care systems,

plus a warning that we face collective suicide by climate change. But first, inflation is bad,

but a recession could be worse. That's today's one big thing.

We're struggling with two things right now. High inflation and the possibility of a recession,

and some economists are arguing that the steps being taken to ease inflation could actually

cause a recession. And would that be even worse? Axios's Emily Pack joins us now with the big picture.

Hey, Emily. Hey, Naila. Emily, we had Naila on last week, and of course the headline was how bad

inflation is. So, is it too soon to say that we're seeing signs of inflation easing, especially

given what we saw last week? So, Nail, as he always is, is right. Inflation is terrible,

and it's bad, and the numbers we saw last week were horrible. But yes, there are a few signs

that relief could be in sight. The prices that companies pay for commodities like lumber

are coming down. If you drive, you know that gas prices have come down quite a bit over the past

month. Those changes weren't reflected in the numbers that we saw last week. Those were

June numbers. It's July now. These are signs, possibly that inflation will ease a little bit.

But of course, as I said before, Nail is correct. Inflation is quite bad.

So, Emily, the Federal Reserve has been raising interest rates to tamp down inflation. Do economists

think we have time for the Fed to take more of a wait and see approach to see if what they've done

so far is working? So, I mean, what the Federal Reserve is trying to do, like big pictures,

...