Welcome to Seeking Alpha's Wall Street brunch, our Sunday look ahead to this week's market moving events,

along with the weekend's top news and analysis.

Hello, today is Sunday June 23rd, and I'm your host Kim Kahn.

The Fed's favorite inflation gauge headlines this week,

just as traders are warming up to the idea that slower growth

will allow the FOMC to cut rates in September. A cool number on the May Corps

PCE could boost odds of a quarter point cut then. They now stand just above 60%, and that's up from just below 50% at the end of May.

The two-year Treasury yield, most closely tied to the Fed funds rate, is around two-month lows.

The core PCEE price index hits Friday, along with the income and

spending data as usual. The forecast is for a 0.2% rise for the month with an annual rate

easing to 2.6% from 2.8%. That's as low as it will get this year,

according the latest report from UBS's economics team, but they see 2.1% just above the Fed

target by the end of 2025.

Economist Jonathan Pingle says,

the majority of what is stall and what is keeping inflation from 2% is rents.

Measures of inflation expectations remain well anchored, supply chains have been

slackening, and apartment rent growth has slowed substantially despite rising costs of

owner-occupied housing.

Between 1995 and mid-2008, Core PCE inflation averaged 1.9%.

Core services inflation around 3% was needed to offset falling goods prices.

Not all buckets of the inflation basket should be at 2%,

just total, he added.

...