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Top Traders Unplugged

IL04: Inflation & The Great Demographic Reversal ft. Manoj Pradhan

Top Traders Unplugged

Niels Kaastrup-Larsen

Business, Business News, Investing, News

4.8670 Ratings

🗓️ 19 July 2022

⏱️ 60 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

Manoj Pradhan, Author and Founder of Talking Heads Macroeconomics, joins us in today’s episode to discuss the structural forces that will drive markets in the future, based on his book, “The Great Demographic Reversal: Ageing Societies, Waning Inequality and an Inflation Revival”. We cover demographics and how it has impacted inflation and interest rates, the idea of using robots and automation to make society more efficient and productive, how ageing is a major contributor to a country’s debt and how inflation can be used as a tool to deal with rising debt, monetization of debt through bonds and how it can be deflationary in some cases. Lastly, we discuss why Manoj believes inequality is going to decrease, due to an imbalance in the labour force, how this shift in equality impacts the economy and much more.

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Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - Intro

02:13 - Introduction to Manoj and his book

07:59 - How demography has impacted inflation and interest rates?

15:05 - Can the global labour force be increased?

22:31 - Using...

Transcript

Click on a timestamp to play from that location

0:00.0

Look at the United States.

0:08.0

If you look at the Congressional Budget Office's estimates for debt to GDP,

0:13.0

debt to GDP is going to go like a straight line up from the pandemic

0:19.0

to nearly 40 to 50% higher in terms of debt to GDP over the next 20, 30, 40 years.

0:24.6

By the time we get to the year 2050, US debt to GDP is going to be around 200%.

0:31.6

So this debt around the pandemic that we're talking about is a drop in the ocean compared to what aging is going to

0:37.8

bring to us. Imagine spending an hour with the world's greatest traders. Imagine learning

0:45.1

from their experiences, their successes, and their failures. Imagine no more. Welcome to Top

0:51.7

Traders Unplugged, the place where you can learn from the best hedge fund managers

0:55.9

in the world so you can take your manager due diligence or investment career to the next level.

1:01.5

Before we begin today's conversation, remember to keep two things in mind. All the discussion

1:06.2

we'll have about investment performance is about the past, and past performance does not

1:10.7

guarantee or even infer anything about future performance is about the past, and past performance does not guarantee or even

1:11.7

infer anything about future performance.

1:14.4

Also understand that there's a significant risk of financial loss with all investment strategies,

1:18.9

and you need to request and understand the specific risks from the investment manager

1:23.0

about their product before you make investment decisions.

1:26.5

Here's your host, veteran hedge fund manager

1:28.7

Niels Kostrup Larson. For me, the best part of my podcasting journey has been the opportunity

1:40.1

to speak to a huge range of extraordinary people from all around the world. In this series I have invited one of them, namely Kevin Koldine to host a series of in-depth conversations

1:50.0

to help uncover and explain new ideas to make you a better investor.

1:55.0

In the series, Kevin will be speaking to authors of new books and research papers

...

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