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The Investing for Beginners Podcast - Your Path to Financial Freedom

IFB256: How to Work with Probabilities in Investing

The Investing for Beginners Podcast - Your Path to Financial Freedom

Andrew Sather

Investing, Business

4.1 • 1.5K Ratings

🗓️ 16 January 2023

⏱️ 33 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

Welcome to the Investing for Beginners podcast! In today’s episode, it’s all about probabilities! Of course, it relates to how you can incorporate it into your investing framework. We discuss Warren Buffet’s past bets and how he used probabilities to his advantage and also the nitty gritty problem on how to arrive on those probability numbers which what makes an alpha for investors.  Timestamps of the episode: -What are probabilities and how it relates to investing in the stock market. [00:30] - Talking about Robert Hagstrom’s book, The Warren Buffett portfolio and how Warren Buffett used probabilities to his advantage. [01:48] -Using probabilities in your investing approach. [04:05] -Diving further, assigning probabilities into your stock buying decisions. [05:42] -Buffett’s early 90’s Wells Fargo bet and his probabilistic way of thinking in investing in other businesses. [08:43] -How Andrew applies probabilities in his own investing decision making. [13:22] -The Bayesian way of assigning probabilities. [16:00] -Real world application: Auto industry [18:40] How to position a portfolio as a beginner during the Sea Change For more insight like this into investing and stock selection for beginners, visit stockmarketpdf.com  SUBSCRIBE TO THE SHOW Apple | Spotify | Google | Stitcher | Tunein Contact sales@advertisecast.com to advertise on Investing for Beginners podcast. The Investing for Beginners podcast is part of the Airwave Media podcast network. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Transcript

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0:00.0

This is a Glass Rocks Media Podcast.

0:07.0

This episode is brought to you by London Business School.

0:10.0

Looking to accelerate your business or understand the opportunities in AI or ESG,

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are you thinking about taking the plunge into entrepreneurship

0:18.0

or about what leadership skills will take you to the next level?

0:21.0

To listen to the latest insights and discussion from LBS faculty,

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subject experts and industry insiders, look for podcasts from London Business School.

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Navigate them now and be prepared for what's next with London Business School.

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...

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