These are all uncertain hypotheses, but we also have to keep in mind that there's so much about evolution by natural selection we don't know that the dog has this little quip.

If you can't program it, you don't understand it, which means in the case of AGI, we can't program AGI.

That means we don't understand what this idea of general intelligence that we have is.

And the same happens to be true of evolution by natural selection. There are these things called evolutionary algorithms, but this is not programming evolution by natural selection.

This is not being able to create artificial entities inside of a computer that when subject to actual environmental pressures are able to evolve towards this increasing complexity.