If Only One Could Predict the Future, It Still Wouldn’t Matter
The Dividend Cafe
The Dividend Cafe - The Bahnsen Group
4.9 • 572 Ratings
🗓️ 8 September 2023
⏱️ 23 minutes
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Summary
Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3PxghfG
Today, I would like to use the last five years to make some broader points about the realities of investing. Evergreen realities are, well, permanent. Yet we find within the last five years some serious bold-faced reiteration of these realities to which I refer (and as you will soon see, there actually is a particular single reality most on my radar this week).
So, in this week’s Dividend Cafe, we will look at the last five years and extract from this little short-term window some big-picture lessons that are sure to matter for more than just the last five years. Consider it part “History” (albeit recent history) and part “Investing 101” …
Jump on into the Dividend Cafe!
Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
Transcript
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| 0:00.0 | Welcome to the Dividend Cafe weekly market commentary focused on dividends in your portfolio and dividends in your understanding of economic life. |
| 0:12.2 | Well, hello and welcome to this week's Dividend Cafe. |
| 0:15.5 | I am really excited about this week's because not only digest to get done writing it and sometimes |
| 0:22.0 | I enjoy recording the podcast in this video when I'm fresh off of the writing more than when I'm |
| 0:30.3 | recording a few hours later because some of the mental inspiration and so forth can get |
| 0:36.4 | distracted or diverted. |
| 0:38.7 | But it's also a topic that I love a lot. |
| 0:41.1 | I mean, first of all, the whole concept of doing Divida Cafe around evergreen principles |
| 0:46.6 | is always hard because there's topical things that come up. |
| 0:50.0 | And I have a strong desire to bring it back to first principles. |
| 0:53.8 | If I'm going to talk about something going on in the world in China, something going on in the world with energy policy, something that just got done happening with bank failures, these are macro topics that come from some event that I like to write about, Diven Cafe. |
| 1:08.7 | And yet, really, what I mostly want for Diven Cafe is reinforcement of permanent principles. |
| 1:15.8 | So to apply various things week by week and pull into that the first principles that we care about, |
| 1:25.2 | sometimes it's a challenge. |
| 1:26.4 | Sometimes I think I execute it well. Sometimes. Sometimes I think I execute it well. |
| 1:28.7 | Sometimes I don't think I execute it well. But this week, I'm just simply talking about first |
| 1:34.4 | principles. I'm doing an entire dividend cafe that starts and finishes with, hey, we have right in |
| 1:43.4 | front of us a beautiful reminder of something that I want you |
| 1:45.6 | remember today, and I want you remember in a year, and I want you remember in 10 years. |
| 1:51.0 | And I'm going to use the last five years to make a point. |
| 1:57.0 | If you look at it from 2018 to 2022, and then we're coming now into 2023 in this kind of setup here. |
| 2:05.7 | 2018 was the first of this five-year period and the market was down that year. |
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