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The Breakdown

ICE Invests $2 Billion in Polymarket

The Breakdown

Blockworks

Business, Investing

4.8806 Ratings

🗓️ 9 October 2025

⏱️ 11 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

The parent company of the New York Stock Exchange just made a $2 billion investment in Polymarket, valuing the prediction-market platform at $9 billion and signaling a huge shift toward crypto-native financial infrastructure. NLW breaks down what the deal means for institutional adoption, how it compares to ICE’s previous crypto efforts, and why this could mark a new phase for decentralized finance. Plus: Bitcoin’s brief pullback, S&P Global’s new crypto index, BNY Mellon’s tokenized deposits, and Christine Lagarde’s latest anti-Bitcoin comments. Enjoying this content? SUBSCRIBE to the Podcast: https://pod.link/1438693620 Watch on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@TheBreakdownBW Subscribe to the newsletter: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://blockworks.co/newsletter/thebreakdown⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Join the discussion: https://discord.gg/VrKRrfKCz8 Follow on Twitter: NLW: https://twitter.com/nlw Breakdown: https://twitter.com/BreakdownBW

Transcript

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0:00.0

Welcome back to The Breakdown with me, NLW.

0:09.3

It's a daily podcast on macro, Bitcoin, and the big picture power shifts remaking our world.

0:18.4

What's going on, guys? It is Wednesday, October 8th, and today we are talking about the big

0:22.8

polymarket deal. Before we get into that, however, if you are enjoying the breakdown, please go

0:26.8

subscribe to it, give it a rating, give it a review, or if you want to dive deeper into the

0:30.5

conversation, come join us on the Breakers Discord. You can find a link in the show notes or go

0:34.1

to bit.ly slash breakdown pod. All right, friends, today we are talking

0:38.4

about the New York Stock Exchange parent company investing in polymarket. But before we do a quick

0:43.5

market update, Bitcoin suffered a 4.2% correction on Tuesday as the run at new all-time highs failed.

0:50.0

The sell-off started as the trading day began in New York and traded to a low of 120,600 in the early afternoon. Trading was rangebound near the lows throughout the day, but rose to 123,000 overnight. So far, this doesn't look like a trend reversal, but we'll need to see a higher high soon to avoid Bitcoin sweeping lower. Trader Bitbull commented, Bitcoin is now trying to flip its previous all-time high into support. I wouldn't be surprised

1:11.6

to see a fake out below it, but overall a new weekly close above 123K is needed. This will set the

1:16.9

stage for the next 20 to 30% rally in the coming weeks. Future's open interest barely moved on the

1:22.0

drawdown and funding rates barely budged. Don Crypto-Trades noted that around 19% of global

1:26.6

open interest was added over the past

1:28.1

week, commenting, it's not completely out of proportions, but to get a sustainable run, I'd rather

1:32.7

see open interest come down slightly first. If it keeps running at this pace, we risk getting

1:37.1

overheated earlier. QCP capital, meanwhile, wasn't sure whether the recent price action

1:41.4

should be considered sustainable or overextended.

1:44.6

They wrote,

1:49.0

Some may argue the 12% surge in Bitcoin over the past week appears overdone given the lack of major catalysts.

1:50.2

But the narratives driving this rally should not be dismissed.

1:53.2

They listed an outperformance in gold, the government shutdown, and Bitcoin reserves

...

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