I was wrong and I'm actually really excited to have discovered what I did and it all goes back to a little side bet that I had with my good buddy Brent Johnson.

Now I think I'm going to be right about interest rates

over the long run, but Brent put out a tweet the other day where he said that he was

buying puts on the T.L. T. T. T. T. T. T. would go down. In other words, long-term interest rates would go up. And

his expiration, I think was like October 17th, something like so I came out and said Brent I will buy you the first round in mediene because he's coming down to medaeine in January.

I've got something called the Rebel Capital's Retreat down here.

As the first round is on me, I'll take the other side of that,

meaning the interest rates will be lower

at the long end or TL.L.T. when we get to October 17th, now we're not there

yet, but so far, like I said at the beginning, I have been completely and

this is where I think you guys are going to really interesting is why I was wrong and this is where I think you guys are going to really get some

not just value but I think you guys are to really going to find this value,

but I think you guys are really going to find this fascinating.

So let's get into it here.

I actually did the whiteboard on this this morning

and it was just such a cool topic.

Let's start by going back to 2007 because this is the last time the Fed dropped by 50 bases points,

at least started the rate cutting cycle by a 50

basis point drop. Now if you guys, excuse me, if you guys recall just what, three or four weeks ago on September 18th

2024 the Fed drop rates from 5.25 down to 4.75.

I mean, we all know this.

But what most people don't know is that if we go back to 2007,

...