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Motley Fool Hidden Gems Investing

Howard Marks on the Stock Market Rarely Being Average

Motley Fool Hidden Gems Investing

The Motley Fool

Business, Investing

4.33.1K Ratings

🗓️ 17 March 2020

⏱️ 2 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

The average return of the stock market is 9-10%. So why does the market rarely hit that number in a given year? Legendary investor Howard Marks explains.   Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Transcript

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0:00.0

With a monthly full money extra, I'm Chris Hill.

0:09.6

The recent sudden drop in the stock market notwithstanding, investing in stocks really

0:14.5

is the best way to build one's wealth over the long term.

0:18.8

Someone who knows that well is Howard Marx.

0:21.5

A legend in the investing world.

0:23.8

Marx is the co-founder of Oak Tree Capital, one of the biggest money management firms in

0:28.3

the world.

0:29.6

In the fall of 2018, you spent some time talking with my colleague Bill Mann about how the

0:35.0

average return of the stock market rarely happens in a given year.

0:40.0

Starting at the University of Chicago in the 60s, people even before the computer age figured

0:46.8

out what the return on stocks had been.

0:49.2

Since 29 to 62, I think they did the work 9.2 percent, then it's been extended since then.

0:55.4

So stocks return 9.10 percent a year on average for long periods of time.

1:01.2

We know that.

1:02.2

They rarely return between 8 and 12.

1:06.0

Many more observations are outside of the 8 to 12 range than inside it.

1:11.3

My first observation is that the average is not the norm.

1:16.3

Why is it if stocks return 10 percent a year on average?

1:20.5

Why don't they just return 10 every year?

1:23.6

The answer, the biggest answer is emotional excesses to the upside, which then require correction

1:36.0

to the downside.

1:38.2

We all have emotions.

...

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