Howard Marks | Mastering the Market Cycle: Getting the Odds on Your Side
Hidden Forces
Demetri Kofinas
4.8 • 1.6K Ratings
🗓️ 2 October 2018
⏱️ 69 minutes
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Summary
In Episode 63 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with legendary value investor Howard Marks. Howard serves as the co-chairman and co-founder of Oaktree Capital Management, a leading investment management firm responsible for over 120 billion dollars in client assets.
This week's conversation centers on the market cycle, its origins and impact. Howard shares his philosophy on risk management, asset bubbles, contrarianism, and what he calls second-level thinking – an approach thinking about value that puts price front and center. The two also explore how markets and the economy have changed over the last fifty years and how the drivers of a secular bull-market in finance may already have come to an end. They explore how a new-normal economy, characterized by low-returns on capital is unleashing political and social forces that have yet to be fully appreciated, let-alone priced into financial assets. Howard Marks shares his views on what it means to be a contrarian investor, how he thinks about risk management, and what his philosophy is around value investing. He also reflects on what his fifty years in finance have taught him about human psychology, herd behavior, and what he calls "bubble-thinking."
Finally, Demetri asks Howard what he sees as the greatest challenge facing the next generation of value investors. He reflects on the rotation of money out of active and into passive investment vehicles, theories of secular stagnation, and shares his opinion on what skills he believes investors will need in order to survive and thrive in the next market downturn.
Producer & Host: Demetri Kofinas
Editor & Engineer: Stylianos Nicolaou
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Transcript
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| 0:00.0 | Today's episode of Hidden Forces is made possible by listeners like you. |
| 0:04.6 | For more information about this week's episode or for easy access to related programming, |
| 0:09.7 | visit our website at hidden ForcesO. and subscribe to our free email list. |
| 0:16.0 | If you listen to the show on your Apple Podcast app, |
| 0:19.0 | remember you can give us a review. |
| 0:21.0 | Each review helps more people find the show and join our amazing community. |
| 0:26.7 | And with that, please enjoy this week's episode. |
| 0:30.3 | What's up everybody? I'm Demedricofenus and you're listening to Hidden Forces where each week I speak with experts in the fields of technology, science, finance, and culture to help you gain the tools to better navigate an increasingly |
| 0:47.0 | complex world so that you're less surprised by tomorrow and better able to predict what happens next. |
| 0:54.0 | My guest this week is legendary value investor Howard Marks, who serves as the co-chairman and co-founder of Oak Tree |
| 1:02.4 | Capital Management, a leading investment management firm responsible |
| 1:06.5 | for over 120 billion dollars in client assets. |
| 1:11.4 | Our conversation centers on the subject of cycles, their origins and impacts. |
| 1:17.0 | Howard shares his philosophy on risk management, asset bubbles, contrarianism, and what he calls second-level thinking, something that has allowed |
| 1:25.9 | him to outperform his competitors and beat the market time and again over the course of a career |
| 1:32.4 | that has sp spent five decades encompassing the most |
| 1:35.6 | turbulent and iconic periods in modern finance. We also explore how markets and the |
| 1:41.1 | economy have changed over the last 50 years, how the drivers of a secular |
| 1:45.8 | bull market in finance may already have come to an end, and how a new normal characterized by low returns on capital, is unleashing political |
| 1:56.0 | and social forces that have yet to be appreciated, let alone priced, into financial assets. |
| 2:02.4 | Finally, I ask Howard what he sees as the greatest challenge facing the next generation of investors, |
| 2:09.0 | what skills he believes they will need to survive the current cycle and thrive in the next. |
... |
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