How You Can Predict The Future Better Than World-Famous Experts - The Art & Science of Risk with Dan Gardner
The Science of Success
Matt Bodnar
4.6 • 1.1K Ratings
🗓️ 26 October 2023
⏱️ 48 minutes
🧾️ Download transcript
Summary
In this episode we discuss the radical mismatch between your intuitive sense of risk and the actual risks you face. We look at why most experts and forecasters are less accurate than dart throwing monkeys. We talk about how to simply and easily dramatically reduce your risk of most major dangers in your life. We explore the results from the “good judgment project” study of more than 20,000 forecasts. We talk about what superforecasters are and how they beat prediction markets, intelligence analysts with classified information, and software algorithms to make the best possible forecasts and MUCH more with Dan Gardner.
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Transcript
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| 0:00.0 | Searching for a romantic summer getaway. Escape with Rich Girl Summer, the new Audible original |
| 0:05.2 | from Lily Chew. The exquisitely talented Philippa Sue, returning to narrate her fifth |
| 0:10.2 | Lily Chew title. This time, Philippa is joined by her real-life husband, Stephen Pasquale, |
| 0:15.5 | set in Toronto's wealthy cottage country, aka the Hamptons of Canada, rich girl Summer follows the story of Valerie, |
| 0:22.1 | a down-on-her-luck event planner posing as a socialite's long-lost daughter, while piecing |
| 0:26.5 | together the secrets surrounding a mysterious family and falling deeper and deeper in love with the |
| 0:31.7 | impossibly hard to read and infuriatingly handsome family assistant, Nico. Caught between pretending to belong |
| 0:38.2 | and unexpectedly finding where she truly fits in, |
| 0:41.3 | Valerie learns her summer is about to get far more complicated |
| 0:44.0 | than she ever planned. |
| 0:45.8 | She's in over her head and head over heels. |
| 0:48.5 | Listen to Rich Girl Summer, now on Audible. |
| 0:51.2 | Go to Audible.com slash Rich Girl Summer. |
| 1:04.2 | Welcome to the science of success with your host, Matt Bodner. |
| 1:12.0 | Welcome to the science of success. I'm your host, Matt Bodner. I'm an entrepreneur and investor in Nashville, Tennessee, and I'm obsessed with the mindset of success. I'm your host, Matt Bodner. I'm an entrepreneur and investor in Nashville, |
| 1:17.4 | Tennessee, and I'm obsessed with the mindset of success and the psychology of performance. I've read hundreds of books, conducted countless hours of research and study, and I'm going to take you on a journey |
| 1:22.3 | into the human mind and what makes peak performers tick. With a focus on always having our |
| 1:27.0 | discussions rooted in psychological research and scientific fact, performers tick, with a focus on always having our discussions rooted in |
| 1:28.1 | psychological research and scientific fact, not opinion. |
| 1:32.0 | In this episode, we discuss the radical mismatch between your intuitive sense of risk and the |
| 1:36.7 | actual risks you face. |
| 1:38.4 | We look at why most experts and forecasters are less accurate the dart-throwing monkeys. |
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