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Sinica Podcast

How will Donald Trump’s victory impact China and U.S.-China relations?

Sinica Podcast

Kaiser Kuo

Currentaffairs, Business, News, China Politics, Shenzhen, Chinese, Chongqing, China News, Politics, China, Culture, Sichuan, Hangzhou, Beijing, International Relations, China Economy, Chengdu, Film, Shanghai, Guangzhou

4.7710 Ratings

🗓️ 10 November 2016

⏱️ 51 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

The U.S. election is over, and Donald Trump’s pundit-defying victory over Hillary Clinton has stunned and surprised people all over the world. In China — where activity on Weibo and WeChat indicated strong support for Trump among netizens both in China and in the U.S. — are elites and the Communist Party leadership happy with the outcome? Or would they have rather seen a Clinton victory, preferring the familiarity and stability that a Hillary Clinton administration would have represented, despite the almost-universal view in China of the former secretary of state as an unalloyed liberal interventionist who hammered China relentlessly on human rights? And what will the Trump victory mean for U.S.-China relations? Will Trump’s fiery anti-China rhetoric on the campaign trail translate into actual policy? Will he hew to his promise to declare China a currency manipulator on his first day in office? Will he go through with threats to slap heavy tariffs on Chinese imports? And will Trump, who as a candidate was highly equivocal on his support for American allies in the western Pacific, give China a freer hand in the region? Finally, how will the Trump victory impact views on democracy? Will it, as James Palmer has suggested, take some of the shine off the city on the hill for young people who admired American democracy — or will it reinforce the idea that the U.S. electoral system really does express the “will of the people”? Isaac Stone Fish, who has written recently about the U.S. election from the Chinese perspective, joins Kaiser in a conversation about these topics and more. Isaac is a senior fellow at the Asia Society’s Center on U.S.-China Relations and formerly served as Asia editor at Foreign Policy. He spent election night with a Chinese constitutional law professor, who by 11 p.m. was comforting a horrified Isaac about the strength and resilience of American democracy. Recommendations: Isaac: The music of Leonard Cohen — “like bathing in whiskey,” says Isaac. Check out David Remnick's profile of the poet, writer and singer in a recent issue of The New Yorker. Also, an alternative pronunciation of the word melancholy. Kaiser: Romance of the Three Kingdoms Podcast, by John Zhu — an excellent retelling in colloquial English of the Chinese classic of warfare, heroism, strategy and betrayal by Luo Guanzhong, based on the translation by Moss Roberts. See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Transcript

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0:00.0

Welcome to the cynical podcast, a week of the discussion of current affairs in China,

0:12.8

powered by SubChina.

0:14.2

SubChina is the best way to keep current on the most important news from China in just a few minutes a day via a free email newsletter, a free handy smartphone

0:23.0

app, and of course, at the website at subchina.com. In addition to aggregation from a wide

0:28.9

range of news sources, SubChina also features some original reporting and essays, and it is now being

0:34.1

edited by my man Jeremy Goldcorn, and we want you to check it out.

0:39.0

I'm Kaiser Guo, coming to you today from the Sinica South studio in downtown Durham, North Carolina.

0:44.9

Jeremy Goldcorn is actually in South Africa right now, or en route there,

0:49.2

attending a conference, and you're going to be hearing more from him from his native country on some forthcoming episodes.

0:56.1

Well, the U.S. election is over.

0:58.0

Hillary Clinton has conceded, and as much as it pains me to say it, Donald Trump is now the president-elect of the United States of America.

1:07.2

China's president Xi Jinping has called Trump to offer his congratulations and, in a boilerplate statement,

1:13.3

emphasize the importance of the bilateral relationship, the common interests the country's share,

1:17.7

and his hope that cooperation would continue on the basis of principles of non-conflict, non-confrontation,

1:24.3

mutual respect, and win-win cooperation with differences controlled in a

1:28.8

constructive manner. Very boilerplate. What's this going to mean, though, for U.S.-China relations?

1:34.3

What's this going to mean for the United States' relationship with its treaty allies and

1:38.2

effective protectorates, countries like Japan, when Trump's commitments to them are kind of now

1:43.4

in question? What about North Korea?

1:46.0

What about our agreements with China on greenhouse gas emissions, which were so hard won over

1:51.4

decades now that a climate change denier is going to be taking the reins in Washington come

1:56.4

January 20th? So with me to talk about all this and more is Isaac Stonefish, former Asia

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