How Trump is Getting the Game Theory Wrong from Risky Business

Cautionary Tales with Tim Harford

Pushkin Industries

Society & Culture, History

4.7 • 6K Ratings

🗓️ 10 March 2025

⏱️ 40 minutes

🔗️ Recording | iTunes | RSS

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Summary

Today we’re sharing an episode from another Pushkin Industries show that we think you’ll enjoy: How Trump is Getting the Game Theory Wrong from Risky Business.

This week, Nate and Maria discuss Trump’s tariffs and analyze his strategy from a game theory perspective. They get into the difference between zero-sum and cooperative games, speculate on how Trump would act in the dictator game, and discuss the rationality of revenge. Then, they talk about the reboot of the infamous Fyre Festival, and why con artists so rarely reform.

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Transcript

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0:00.0	Pushkin.
0:10.6	Welcome back to Risky Business, a show about making better decisions. I'm Maria Konnikova.
0:21.7	And I'm Nate Silver.
0:26.7	Today on the show, we'll talk about the markets and how they're reacting to recent actions by President Trump. I, you know, I'll just say this much. You know, I think that Cayman Islands,
0:31.0	bungalow I was hoping to buy has been undermined by the recent performance of my 401k.
0:35.7	On a brighter side, Nate, you might have a chance to go to an island off the coast of Mexico,
0:41.0	because after that, we'll be talking about the return of Billy McFarland and Fire Festival Take 2.
0:47.9	Can we pause the show so I can book my ticket right now?
0:50.3	Let's do it.
0:52.3	We're back.
0:53.0	I have a one way.
0:55.0	I just want to stay there.
0:56.3	I don't even want to look at a return flight.
0:58.1	Yeah.
0:58.7	So we're now all prepared for Fire Festival 2.
1:02.7	And let's talk a little bit of markets first.
1:10.1	So right now, as we are recording this, it is Tuesday, March 4th.
1:15.4	And I'm saying that because, Nate, you and I have both seen, I mean, the world has seen
1:20.5	that economic news in this administration changes very quickly.
1:24.3	So it's very important to put this in context.
1:26.8	So today, Tuesday, Trump has announced
1:30.3	tariffs 25% across the board against Canada and Mexico, 10% against China. Canada and China
	...

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