How To Win At NFL Player Props In 2025 (Episode 905 with Adam Levitan, Mark Dankenbring, Cort Smith)

Establish The Run Fantasy Football

Fantasy Football

Fantasy Sports, Sports

4.8 • 1.4K Ratings

🗓️ 2 September 2025

⏱️ 47 minutes

🔗️ Recording | iTunes | RSS

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

Adam Levitan, Mark Dankenbring, and Cort Smith assess the NFL Player Prop betting landscape ahead of the 2025 NFL Season, discussing everything they have learned from decades of player prop betting, how sportsbooks are adapting, and how they will apply this knowledge in the upcoming season.

In this episode, we discuss:

- Whether it’s better prioritize betting volume or ROI

- What level of performance does it take to update prior projections and baselines?

- Why are Best Ball and Redraft League impacting betting lines?

- What analysis has told us about our processes over the years?

- What days of the week do we find provide the biggest edges?

Timestamps:

0:00 - Intro

2:29 - How The Markets Have Changed

8:14 - Market Openers

12:12 - When to Place Bet

18:28 - Expanding Markets & What to Look For

22:52 - Updating Priors & Baselines

25:42 - Best Ball & Redraft Hype Carrying Over Into Markets

32:44 - Edges We Should Be Betting & Volume vs. ROI

35:22 - Alt/Long Shot Bets

37:17 - Analyzing ETR’s Results Over The Last Four Years

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Transcript

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0:00.0	Hello and welcome to episode 905 of the official Establish the Run.com podcast. My name is Adam Levittan,
0:23.2	and you guys know me. I don't bet sports in the traditional sense. I don't bet NFL sides,
0:29.1	NFL totals. I don't really care who wins the games because I don't think there's much of an edge
0:34.1	there. And I have a crippling addiction to EV. But I do know
0:40.7	there is a big edge in NFL player props. And so that is where we have dedicated an insane
0:46.5	amount of our time and resources to discuss NFL player props today. I am joined by two members of our props team. Mark Duncanbring,
0:56.1	how's it going today, buddy? It's going great. Like you, Adam, I absolutely love all things player
1:01.2	props, NFL and NBA is our specialty here at ETR. So pumped to talk through some of the insight
1:07.5	into how we go about betting all these NFL props today. Indeed. And many of you
1:12.3	from the prop streets in the NFL prop streets know Court Smith. Court. How's it going to you,
1:17.6	buddy? Good, man. I think this is, I think this is my eighth season doing public facing,
1:23.6	releasing props. So it's crazy how the time flies. I think it was 20, or 2018, the first year
1:30.0	I started publicly releasing props. So it's pretty wild that we're still here all these years
1:34.0	later. I knew it would get big back then, but it got bigger than I thought for sure.
1:39.2	Wow. Some of these people that you were talking to, some of the people who were talking to now probably weren't even alive in 2018.
1:46.7	So here we are.
1:47.8	Black Miller, I think.
1:50.7	On today's show, we're going to talk how to beat NFL player props in 2025,
1:57.4	a peek into our process for the official props release subscription,
2:01.2	how the market has changed,
2:02.8	spots to watch,
2:03.6	mistakes people make,
	...

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