How to make sense of political polls
Post Reports
The Washington Post
4.4 • 5.1K Ratings
🗓️ 3 October 2024
⏱️ 28 minutes
🧾️ Download transcript
Summary
As Election Day looms, we’re seeing more and more headlines based on poll results. Some declare Trump and Harris neck and neck, while others state one candidate has a small advantage over the other. But how can we make sense of all these polls flooding the news cycle?
Today, Martine Powers speaks with The Post’s deputy polling director, Emily Guskin. Emily explains how a poll comes to be, what to look for when trying to understand whether a poll is trustworthy and breaks down once and for all what “margin of error” really means.
Today’s show was produced by Ariel Plotnick, with help from Bishop Sand. It was edited by Reena Flores and mixed by Sam Bair. Subscribe to The Washington Post here.
Correction: A previous version of this episode gave an example of a margin of error applying to a percentage of a sample that hated apples. In the example, the margin of error actually applied to the percentage of the population that hates apples. The audio has been corrected.
Transcript
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| 0:00.0 | So Emily Guskin, because you're the deputy polling director here at the post, I want to know what it's like to be asked about a poll over the phone. |
| 0:13.0 | Like, let's say that I have been chosen to answer a poll that's being conducted by the Washington Post. |
| 0:19.0 | What does that look like? |
| 0:21.0 | Well, first your phone's going to ring for this poll. Okay let's just let's do it for a real. Okay so |
| 0:25.8 | do do do do ring ring ring so I pick up the phone hello. Hello I'm Emily we're not |
| 0:31.2 | selling anything just doing an opinion poll on interesting subjects in the news. |
| 0:35.0 | I'm sorry, I'm a little busy right now. How long is this going to take? |
| 0:38.0 | Very short. We'd love to have your opinion. May I please speak from our team? |
| 0:42.0 | This is she. |
| 0:44.0 | Wonderful. |
| 0:45.0 | Again, my name is Emily. |
| 0:46.0 | Before we continue, are you driving or doing anything that requires your full attention right now? |
| 0:51.0 | Uh, I mean, I'm like washing the dishes, so I guess not? |
| 0:56.0 | So, super, we will go ahead then. |
| 0:58.3 | That's my co-host, Martin Powers, speaking with Emily Guskin, our deputy polling director. |
| 1:06.2 | If you're like me or Martin, you may be wondering about all these political polls |
| 1:11.5 | you've been hearing about right now. So we brought Emily into our |
| 1:15.3 | studio to help us make sense of election polling this year and to also give us an idea of what it actually feels like to take a poll over the phone. |
| 1:25.0 | Are you registered to vote in the District of Columbia or not? |
| 1:28.0 | Uh, yes, I am. |
| 1:30.0 | Do you think you'll vote in person at a polling place on election day or vote early either by mail or in person before election day? |
| 1:39.0 | I haven't decided that yet, so I'm not sure that's okay. |
... |
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