How to Invest in an Inflationary Recession | Paulo Macro & Le Shrub

Hidden Forces

Demetri Kofinas

Government, Business

4.8 • 1.6K Ratings

🗓️ 13 May 2024

⏱️ 59 minutes

🔗️ Recording | iTunes | RSS

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Summary

In Episode 363 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with investors Paulo Macro and Le Shrub about their investment ideas, frameworks, and processes for identifying investment opportunities and managing risk.

In the first hour, Demetri asks Paulo and Le Shrub about some of their respective frameworks, including the EM-ification of developed economies, the need to understand the incentives of policymakers, and how these frameworks can help inform your expectations about interest rates, inflation, credit rationing, and much more.

In the second hour, Paulo Macro and Le Shrub discuss how the contemporary strain on the international system and on American military and financial hegemony could amplify some of the budgetary and political headwinds facing developed economies in the years ahead. They discuss the conundrum facing policymakers in China, the investment opportunity in commodities, the search for a new safe asset in a world of worsening fiscal balance sheets, and what it feels like to be “financially gaslighted” during an inflationary recession where prices rise as one’s living standard declines.

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Producer & Host: Demetri Kofinas

Editor & Engineer: Stylianos Nicolaou

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Episode Recorded on 05/07/2024

Transcript

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0:00.0	What's up everybody? My name is
0:02.7	the Mitra Kofinas and you're listening to Hidden Forces, a
0:06.2	podcast that inspires investors, entrepreneurs and everyday citizens
0:11.6	to challenge consensus narratives and learn how to think critically
0:15.6	about the systems of power shaping our world.
0:18.9	My guest in this episode of Hidden Forces are Paolo Macro and La Shrub, two very popular authors with large Twitter
0:26.2	accounts who also published their market commentary and investment ideas on Paolo macro.
0:32.1	SubStak.com and Shrub Stack. respectively.
0:37.0	This is a conversation about not only ideas and investment frameworks,
0:42.0	but also about process and how these two investors with
0:45.3	40 years of market experience between them seize investment opportunities and manage
0:50.6	risk, including one of the largest risks of all, you, you and the behavioral biases
0:57.3	that can so often lead all of us to make bad decisions at the worst possible time.
1:04.1	In the first hour of our conversation,
1:06.1	I ask Paolo and the Shrub
1:08.1	about some of their respective frameworks,
1:10.2	including the EMification of developed economies and their political systems,
1:14.8	and the need to understand the incentives of policy makers,
1:18.2	how their toolboxes have changed in the years since the COVID-19 pandemic,
1:22.4	and how that should inform your expectations about interest
1:25.4	rates, inflation, credit rationing, and much more. In the second hour, we explore how the
1:32.4	contemporary strain on the international system
	...

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