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The Town with Matthew Belloni

How to Gamble on the Oscars

The Town with Matthew Belloni

The Ringer

Society & Culture

4.31.1K Ratings

🗓️ 25 March 2022

⏱️ 26 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

Oscar math expert Ben Zauzmer joins the show to outline his Oscars prediction model and to forecast who his model believes are mathematically the most likely winners in each category. Later, Matt gives a prediction of his own on the 2022 Oscars. Host: Matt Belloni Guest: Ben Zauzmer Producer: Craig Horlbeck Theme Song: Devon Renaldo Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Transcript

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0:00.0

Joanna, do you ever wish you could definitively prove that you had the right opinions about movies?

0:05.7

Uh, yeah, Neil, because I do have the right opinions about movies and television, right, Dave?

0:09.8

No, because I'm more right about those things, and I demand trial by content.

0:14.3

Oh, boy, what is trial by content?

0:16.6

Each week, we'll take on a huge question.

0:18.5

Each of us will bring a choice and combine with listener submissions and your votes.

0:22.0

We will come to a decision.

0:23.2

It's trial-like content every Tuesday on Spotify, the ringer.com, wherever you're listening right now.

0:27.5

Don't let Neil win.

0:28.5

Don't let Dave win.

0:31.4

Hello, it's Friday, March 25th, and it is Oscar weekend, officially.

0:36.4

So today on the show, we've got the Oscarologist. He's an Oscar

0:39.6

savant. He is a math whiz. He looks at the numbers around the Oscars and makes predictions on who's

0:46.8

going to win. This name is Ben Zossmer. He's got a great book called Oscar Metrics. And he just today

0:53.1

put out his final predictions. So we're going to go over

0:55.5

that, and I'm going to speculate about some gambling. He can't talk about gambling. He works in

1:01.0

baseball, but I'm going to speculate about some of the best things to bet on for this Sunday's race.

1:07.6

And then I'm going to have some predictions at the end. So before we get into that,

1:12.8

I want to talk a little bit about the stakes for this Sunday's Oscars. You know, people watch and

1:17.3

they say, oh, this movie's fun, this movie's not. There's a lot of business that goes on behind

1:22.0

the scenes of the Oscars. And there is a months-long run-up where these companies releasing movies

1:27.1

spend millions of dollars to get these movies considered for Best Picture and the other categories.

...

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