How to Forecast the Future

Odd Lots

Bloomberg

News, Investing, Business, News Commentary, Business News

4.4 • 1.6K Ratings

🗓️ 26 August 2019

⏱️ 41 minutes

🔗️ Recording | iTunes | RSS

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Summary

Every day, people are bombarded with predictions of what will happen in the future. In recent months, talk of 'inflection points' in the markets has heated up, and the possibility of the U.S. economic expansion, now the longest in history, coming to an end is being actively discussed. But how do we know if such predictions are good ones? And how can we learn to be better forecasters ourselves? On this week's episode of the Odd Lots podcast, we talk to Philip Tetlock, the Leonore Annenberg University Professor of Psychology and Management at the University of Pennsylvania, and the author of numerous books and papers on the topic of predictions.

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0:00.0	There's so much news happening around the world that we're somehow supposed to stay on top of.
0:05.5	That's why we launched The Big Take. It's a daily podcast from Bloomberg and I Heart
0:11.4	Radio that turns down the volume a bit to give you some space to think.
0:16.5	I'm Wes Kossova.
0:18.0	Each weekday I dig into one important story and talk about why it matters.
0:23.7	Listen to the big take on the I Heart Radio app,
0:26.6	Apple Podcasts, or wherever you listen. Hello, Oddlots is hosting its first ever live event on Thursday, September 19th in New York City.
0:47.0	Join me and Joe Weisenthal as we host an evening of great conversation and live music.
0:52.0	The Oddlots Variety Show will feature some new and old
0:55.4	Oddlots guests including the economist Stephanie Kelton. Sam Antar, the
1:00.2	former Crazy Eddie CFO and Convicted Felon, will give us some of his best stories.
1:05.0	Meanwhile, Lee Bukite, once dubbed the philosopher king of sovereign debt lawyers, is coming out of retirement for us.
1:12.0	Sultan Pozar of Credit Swiss and formerly of the US Treasury will be on stage with Brad Setzer,
1:18.0	Senior Fellow at the Council for Foreign Relations,
1:21.0	talking all things, bonds, and trade.
1:24.0	We'll also have some markets-themed music,
1:26.0	courtesy of Marlhazard, the most important country singer in economics
1:30.0	and an early O'Lot's guest,
1:31.6	and even Joe has promised us a song or two. You can stick around after
1:36.4	the show for some drinks and a chance to chat with us and our guests in person. So keep listening
1:41.6	to odd Lots to learn how to sign up to see us live on Thursday, September 19th.
1:46.0	We hope to see you there. The Hello, and I'm Tracey Allaway.
	...

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