Hey there, it's Stephen Dubner.

The episode you were about to hear was originally published in 2019.

We were inspired to play it again now as a way to think about what's going on in Ukraine.

It is by now well-established that when Vladimir Putin chose to invade Ukraine after a

long build up and warnings from the U.S. and many others, that he was expecting a quick

and simple victory.

Whatever happens next, it's clear that the invasion has turned out to be more difficult

than he expected, which got us to wondering, has Putin changed his mind about the wisdom

of his plan if he had it to do over?

Would he choose a different course?

And now that he's facing a potential quagmire, is there a way for him to extricate Russia

without losing face?

The following episode is called How to Change Your Mind.

Even though we gave it that chipper title, the reality is that changing your mind, especially

in public, can be very costly, especially for a politician.

And even more so for an autocrat.

What's the point of being an autocrat if you ever have to admit you were wrong?

But this isn't just about autocrats.

For instance, I'd love to know what Barack Obama would think if you listened back today

to this tape cut from a 2012 presidential debate with Mitt Romney.

You having a Romney, I'm glad that you recognized that Al Qaeda's a threat because a few months

ago when you were asked what's the biggest geopolitical threat facing America, you said

...