meta_pixel
Tapesearch Logo
Log in
Establish The Run Fantasy Football

How To Beat NFL Player Props (Episode 433 with Adam Levitan, Mike Leone, Mark Dankenbring)

Establish The Run Fantasy Football

Fantasy Football

Sports, Fantasy Sports

4.71.5K Ratings

🗓️ 6 September 2022

⏱️ 28 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

Adam Levitan, Mike Leone, and Mark Dankenbring discuss how to become a better player props bettor in NFL, how projections can be used to make better bets, why unders are better than overs, and much more.

Looking to play Best Ball on Underdog? If you don't have an Underdog account yet, use promo code ETR for a first deposit match up to $100.

https://play.underdogfantasy.com/p-establish-the-run


In this episode, we discuss:

  • Are props just projections vs. lines? (2:48)
  • How does volume relate to props? (5:02)
  • Using mean vs. median (6:41)
  • If we can beat them, why do books still offer props? (9:50)
  • Why are unders better than overs? (12:03)
  • Managing your money in sportsbooks (17:36)
  • Explaining why higher volume, lower win rate is better (20:47)
  • Betting openers (25:00)


Links mentioned in the episode:

  1. Underdog Best Ball Rankings - https://establishtherun.com/etrs-top-300-for-underdogfantasy/
  2. Silva’s Top 150 - https://establishtherun.com/evan-silvas-top-150/
  3. Dynasty Rankings - https://establishtherun.com/2022-dynasty-rankings/


Want ETR on your team this season?

Our 2022 DRAFT KIT has you covered with:

  • Silva’s Top 150 and Tiers for Drafting
  • Continuously Updated Rankings for Every Format
  • Sleepers and Busts
  • Best Ball, Dynasty, and Season-Long Props (Draft Kit Pro)
  • And tons more!

All in one place. Subscribe now at https://establishtherun.com/subscribe/


Additionally, we have worked out a SPECIAL deal with BETMGM. Sign up for a new account with the link below and they will email you a $100 coupon to use on any ETR product. The coupon is good for one year.

SIGN-UP LINK:

https://mediaserver.betmgmpartners.com/renderBanner.do?zoneId=1673829

Promotion NOT available in NY, PA, or Ontario

After signing up for BetMGM, please follow these four steps:

  1. Deposit at least $10 (NO PROMO CODE NEEDED)
  2. Place your first wager (you still qualify for MGM’s promotion of a Risk-Free bet up to $1,000)
  3. You will receive an email from BetMGM with unique promo code within a few days of making your qualifying bet
  4. Head to ETR’s subscription page and use your unique code for $100 off any ETR subscription


- Follow ETR on Twitter - https://twitter.com/EstablishTheRun

- Follow Adam on Twitter - https://twitter.com/adamlevitan

- Follow Evan on Twitter - https://twitter.com/evansilva

Transcript

Click on a timestamp to play from that location

0:00.0

Hey, hello and welcome to episode 433 of The Official, established to run.com podcast.

0:22.1

My name is Adam Levittin and I know, I know, everyone's to bet sports.

0:26.5

They want to bet sports.

0:27.5

I want to bet sports at them.

0:28.9

Everyone wants to fire up the draft kings or the fandom or the Caesars app and just blast.

0:33.1

And I get it.

0:34.8

It's fun to bet on sports.

0:35.8

It's really easy to just fire off on something, but it's not in my nature.

0:40.6

I physically can't do it.

0:41.6

I can't bet negative EV stuff and therefore I don't bet size and totals.

0:45.4

I do, however, bet props because I like money and I like winning and we know we are really,

0:51.6

really likely to win in props, which we'll explain here today.

0:56.2

Before today's show, I'm joined by two young men who are elbow deep in projections every

1:00.4

day.

1:01.4

You're firing your props.

1:02.4

Part of our team working on the props product.

1:04.5

It is Mike Leoni and Mark Duncan Bring.

1:07.3

Leoni, how's it going?

1:09.3

It's going well already, you know, full in prop season as some are getting released for

1:13.6

week one.

1:14.6

So it's been exciting.

1:15.6

I don't know how productive it is for the rest of my work to just be running, running

...

Please login to see the full transcript.

Disclaimer: The podcast and artwork embedded on this page are from Fantasy Football, and are the property of its owner and not affiliated with or endorsed by Tapesearch.

Generated transcripts are the property of Fantasy Football and are distributed freely under the Fair Use doctrine. Transcripts generated by Tapesearch are not guaranteed to be accurate.

Copyright © Tapesearch 2026.