How To Be A Successful Contrarian Investor
Money For the Rest of Us
J. David Stein
4.5 • 1.4K Ratings
🗓️ 20 April 2022
⏱️ 32 minutes
🔗️ Recording | iTunes | RSS
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Summary
How contrarians combine value and momentum to take positions opposite what the consensus believes. What is the consensus view in today's financial markets and how are contrarians positioned.
Topics covered include:
- Five attributes of successful investors
- Why does the consensus expect stagflation
- How central banks have performed in previous tightening cycles
- Three reasons central banks tightening results in a recession
- When have interest rates peaked in prior tightening cycles
- How stocks tend to do well when investors get extremely pessimistic
- What are examples of contrarian investments in the current market environment
- How contrarian opportunities involve both value and momentum
- What are some additional examples of being contrarian outside of the investment arena
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Show Notes
Weekly Market Pulse: Time To Get Contrarian? by Joseph Y. Calhoun III—Alhambra Investment
BofA Says Fund Managers Most Gloomy on Record on Recession Woes by Nikos Chrysoloras—Bloomberg
Tightening risks recession but inaction would be worse by Neil Shearing—Capital Economics
Related Episodes
266: Using Momentum Investing and Trend Following
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Transcript
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| 0:00.0 | Welcome to Money for the Rest of Us. |
| 0:03.0 | This is a personal finance show on money, how it works, how to invest it, and how to |
| 0:07.7 | live without worrying about it. |
| 0:09.6 | I'm your host, David Stein, today's episode 383. |
| 0:13.5 | It's titled How to Be a Successful Contrarian. |
| 0:18.3 | Right after I graduated with a bachelor's of Business Administration in Finance from the |
| 0:25.3 | University of Cincinnati, I decided I should go get a job. |
| 0:29.9 | I interviewed with Schaeffer Investment Research. |
| 0:34.0 | They are an option's newsletter and service that's been in business over 40 years. |
| 0:40.2 | In the interview, I was asked, what does it mean to be contrarian from an investment standpoint? |
| 0:48.9 | I didn't know. |
| 0:50.1 | I stumbled around, I came up with something plausible. |
| 0:54.4 | We hadn't covered contrarianism in my undergraduate program. |
| 0:59.1 | I didn't get the job. |
| 1:00.8 | I lacked experience, I lacked the vocabulary of investing. |
| 1:06.3 | I thought about this recently because I found an old, moleskin notebook that I began |
| 1:12.7 | back in 2004. |
| 1:15.0 | I used to carry this small notebook around with me. |
| 1:17.2 | I would take notes as I flew many, many miles to various client meetings. |
| 1:24.1 | One of the pages I found described my investment philosophy or as I tried to outline the investment |
| 1:31.2 | philosophy of our investment firm. |
| 1:34.5 | I probably wrote this back in 2006. |
... |
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