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TechCheck

How the GOP bill could slow U.S. AI innovation 7/7/25

TechCheck

CNBC

Disruptors, Investing, Faang, Technology, Business, Management, Cnbc, Tech

4.856 Ratings

🗓️ 7 July 2025

⏱️ 6 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

President Trump's newly-signed spending bill slashes tax credits for renewable energy, which could have a massive and unexpected impact on big tech's development of AI, especially as China ramps up its electricity generation compared to the U.S.

Transcript

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0:00.0

The president's newly signed spending bill, codifying some cuts to programs, including clean energy tax credits, could have an unexpected impact on big tech's AI race.

0:09.6

Our dear Debois is digging into that for today's tech check. Morning, Dee.

0:12.9

Hey, good morning, Carl. So powering AI, it is quickly becoming the bottleneck data centers.

0:17.6

They already consume more electricity than some countries, and that is only expected

0:21.5

to triple by the end of the decade. This new law hits the brakes on the cheapest, fastest growing

0:27.1

sources of new power, that's solar, wind, and batteries by slashing tax credits and incentives

0:32.9

and really reshapes the U.S. energy mix and directly impacts where and how fast,

0:40.7

hypers, like Amazon, Google, Microsoft, how quickly they can build.

0:45.9

President Trump frames it as energy dominance, more drilling, permitting, cheaper gas to fuel the AI boom, but the reality here is more complicated.

0:49.1

Take a look at this chart from semi-analysis.

0:51.2

It tells the story.

0:52.3

This is not just a clean energy pivot. It is a

0:55.7

energy capacity arms race. And China, on the left, it's building everything, fossil,

1:01.4

renewables, grid, storage, electricity generation there has nearly tripled from 2005. The U.S.

1:08.1

On the right, though, you can see flat overall. Gas dominates, coal is declining,

1:13.4

and renewables they were gaining. This law, though, changes that trajectory. It is likely to

1:18.1

flatten or even reverse solar and wind growth, extend gas as dominance, and it could trigger

1:22.8

a coal rebound in parts of the country, which is slower and more expensive to operate.

1:27.0

Now, this also complicates storage incentives, which is slower and more expensive to operate. Now, this also

1:27.5

complicates storage incentives, which could make it harder to integrate new clean energy into the

1:33.0

grid. And of course, this all has direct implications for the AI race and investors, because every

1:37.9

hyperscaler is racing to build out AI infrastructure, but power is now the constraint without

...

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