How the ‘Godzilla’ El Niño could change the world
The Global Story
BBC
3.8 • 667 Ratings
🗓️ 5 June 2026
⏱️ 27 minutes
🧾️ Download transcript
Summary
Scientists warn that a “super” El Niño could be on its way which, combined with the effects of human-caused climate change, could result in 2027 being the warmest year on record. Yet El Niño is not just a climate story - throughout history, this recurring weather pattern has helped shape global events, triggering everything from famines and revolutions to impacting the Cold War. In this episode, we speak to historian Peter Frankopan, Professor of Global History at Oxford, to discuss what historical El Niños tell us about what cou be coming our way, and how we can collectively prepare.
Producers: Valerio Esposito and Aron Keller
Executive producer: James Shield and China Collins
Mix: Travis Evans
Senior news editor: China Collins
Photo: A woman rides a bicycle in the rain in Yangon, Myanmar, 22 May 2026. Credit: Nyein Chan Naing/EPA/Shutterstock
Transcript
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| 0:00.0 | BBC Sounds, music, radio, podcasts. |
| 0:06.2 | Centuries ago, as legend has it, some fishermen off the coast of Peru noticed that every so often the Pacific Ocean would become unusually warm around Christmas time. |
| 0:17.7 | There weren't as many fish for them to catch, and their livelihoods were hit. |
| 0:20.7 | And so, as the story goes, they dubbed the changing Christmas temperatures, El Nino, |
| 0:26.8 | referring to baby Jesus. El Nino's are a naturally occurring phenomena that go back, as you can |
| 0:33.0 | see, years and years. A climate pattern known to drive extreme weather around the world. |
| 0:38.9 | Heavy rainfall, severe droughts, intense heat waves. And now, this week, the UN issued a fresh, dire warning. |
| 0:49.0 | The science is clear. El Nino is arriving on our doorstep in the coming months with 90% certainty. |
| 0:57.0 | This coming El Nino is predicted to be one of the strongest ever recorded, a so-called |
| 1:03.5 | super Al Nino. Through the centuries, Al Nino's have done more than just shape our weather. |
| 1:10.0 | They've been linked to major world events from famines to revolution. |
| 1:14.8 | From the BBC, I'm Asma Khalid in Washington, D.C. |
| 1:18.6 | And today on the global story, |
| 1:20.6 | what do previous Al-Ninos tell us about what might be coming down the pipeline |
| 1:25.1 | and how we can prepare for this one? |
| 1:34.0 | Music what might be coming down in the pipeline and how we can prepare for this one. When we first saw the news of this so-called super al-Nino, something that, in fact, one news report we saw had dubbed a Godzilla El Nino, |
| 1:43.1 | my co-host Tristan Redman and I figured we ought to put this |
| 1:46.7 | into historical context. And so we called up Peter Frank Pan. I'm professor of global history |
| 1:52.9 | at the University of Oxford. And amongst the things I've looked at for the last 30 years, |
| 1:57.5 | are not just regions, but new themes and the new materials. And as a historian, |
| 2:02.0 | climate archives are a crucial part of understanding the past. I've done lots of climate histories |
| 2:06.6 | and environmental bits that are important in the world of tomorrow and today as well as in the past. |
... |
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