4.6 • 11K Ratings
🗓️ 2 April 2024
⏱️ 75 minutes
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| 0:00.0 | From New York Times opinion, this is the Ezra Klein Show. This feels wrong to me, but I've checked the dates. It was barely more than a year ago that I wrote this piece about AI with the title, This Changes Everything. I ended up reading it on the show too. And the piece was |
| 0:35.0 | about the speed with which AI systems were improving. It argued that we can |
| 0:40.1 | usually trust that tomorrow is going to be roughly like today, the next year is |
| 0:44.0 | going to be roughly like this year. That's not what we're seeing here. These systems |
| 0:48.7 | are growing in power and capabilities at an astonishing rate. The growth is exponential, not linear. |
| 0:56.0 | When you look at surveys of AI researchers, their timeline for how quickly AI is going to be able to do |
| 1:01.2 | basically anything a human does better and more cheaply than a human. |
| 1:05.0 | The timeline is accelerating year by year on these surveys. |
| 1:08.2 | When I do my own reporting talking to the people inside these companies, people at this strange intersection of excited and terrified of what they're |
| 1:14.9 | building, no one tells me they are seeing a reason to believe progress is |
| 1:18.6 | going to slow down. And you might think that's just hype, but a lot of them want it to slow down. |
| 1:23.3 | A lot of them are scared of how quickly it is moving. They don't think that society is |
| 1:27.6 | ready for it, the regulation is ready for it. They think the competitive |
| 1:31.4 | pressures between the companies and the countries are dangerous. |
| 1:34.3 | They wish something would happen to make it all go slower. But what they are seeing is they are |
| 1:38.8 | hitting the milestones faster, that we're getting closer and closer to truly transformational AI, that there is so much money and |
| 1:45.8 | talent and attention flooding into the space that that is becoming its own accelerant. |
| 1:51.1 | They are scared, we should at least be paying attention. |
| 1:55.2 | And yet I find living in this moment really weird because as much as I know this wildly |
| 2:00.2 | powerful technology is emerging beneath my fingertips. As much as I believe |
| 2:04.8 | it's going to change the world I live in profoundly, I find it really hard to just |
| 2:08.7 | fit it into my own day-to-day work. I consistently you know sort of wander up to the AI, ask it a question, |
... |
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