How scientists predict big winter storms

Short Wave

NPR

News, Life Sciences, Astronomy, Daily News, Nature, Science

4.7 • 6.5K Ratings

🗓️ 28 January 2026

⏱️ 11 minutes

🔗️ Recording | iTunes | RSS

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Summary

This past weekend, Winter Storm Fern struck the States. Sleet, snow and ice battered Americans all the way from New Mexico to New York. Scientists predicted its arrival in mid-January, and in anticipation of the storm, more than 20 state governors issued emergency declarations. But how did scientists know so much, so early, about the approaching storm? NPR climate reporter Rebecca Hersher says it has to do with our weather models… and the data we put into them. Which begs the question: Will we continue to invest in them?

Interested in more science behind the weather? Check out our episodes on better storm prediction in the tropics and how the Santa Ana winds impact the fire season this time of year.

Have a question we haven’t covered? Email us at shortwave@npr.org. We’d love to consider it for a future episode!

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This episode was produced by Hannah Chinn. It was edited by our showrunner Rebecca Ramirez. Tyler Jones and Rebecca Hersher checked the facts. The audio engineer was Robert Rodriguez.

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Transcript

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0:00.0	Dean Regis here, astronomer and host of Looking Up.
0:03.6	I journey to the far reaches of the universe, hearing from scientists, astronauts, and geeky celebs along the way.
0:10.8	We cover everything from black holes to the latest in science fiction.
0:14.7	Listen now to the Looking Up podcast from the NPR Network and Cincinnati Public Radio.
0:20.2	You're listening to Shortwave from NPR.
0:25.8	Hello from freezing cold Washington, D.C.
0:29.2	I'm Regina Barber.
0:30.3	And I'm NPR climate reporter Rebecca Hersher.
0:33.0	And it's super cold where you are too, right, Becky?
0:36.3	Oh my gosh, yes.
0:37.3	Let me check my gosh, yes.
0:40.7	Let me check my window thermometer here.
0:45.5	Yeah, it is 14 degrees right now in Baltimore.
0:46.7	Oh, wow, wow.
0:48.4	I don't even want to check for here.
0:49.9	It's gross.
0:50.5	It's cold.
0:54.3	There's like eight inches of snow outside plus a couple inches of ice.
0:55.7	We got hit by this storm.
0:56.3	Yeah.
1:11.1	I mean, me, you, tens of millions of other people. Like, this is a big one. Well, if you wanted a snowy winter, you are getting it tonight. The storm stretches over 2,300 miles with more than 40s. It is windy. It is pelleting. about half the United States population today,
1:15.6	shoveling, scraping, and slogging their way through heavy snow.
	...

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