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PBS News Hour - Segments

How retirements and redistricting could impact the 2026 midterms

PBS News Hour - Segments

PBS NewsHour

News, Daily News

4.11K Ratings

🗓️ 30 December 2025

⏱️ 5 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

The end of 2025 brings us to the beginning of a midterm election year. That means questions about whether power will shift in Washington. Dozens of members of Congress are heading toward the exit and a handful of states are shaking up their political maps to try to lock in partisan gains. Lisa Desjardins breaks down the numbers. PBS News is supported by - https://www.pbs.org/newshour/about/funders. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy

Transcript

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0:00.0

The end of 2025 brings us to the beginning of a midterm election year, and that means questions

0:05.8

about whether power will shift in Washington. Dozens of members of Congress are heading

0:10.1

toward the exit, and a handful of states are shaking up their political maps to try and lock

0:14.8

in partisan gains. Lisa Desjardin is here to walk through the numbers at the super screen. Lisa,

0:20.6

thank you very much.

0:22.0

So let's start with what is certain. Where is redistricting in place and which party benefits?

0:27.0

We've talked a lot about the two biggest states involved here, Texas, where Republicans began

0:31.3

this redistricting war, and California, where Democrats responded. In each of those states,

0:35.9

the parties respectively expect to pick up between three and five seats.

0:40.4

But let's talk about the three states that have also remapped.

0:44.9

Those are for Republicans, Ohio and North Carolina, where they expect to pick up a couple of seats.

0:50.3

But Democrats also have an opportunity as well.

0:53.1

Utah, where a court-ordered map means

0:55.8

they could pick up a seat around Salt Lake City. So take these five states where new maps will be

1:01.6

in place, and what do you get? Here's a cheat sheet. This is a way to think about this math.

1:07.1

The Republicans, these are where they expect to pick up. But if you look at it, their Texas gains really are washed out by the California for Republicans.

1:15.6

Same thing.

1:16.6

North Carolina, that basically is canceled out by the potential in Utah.

1:19.6

That leaves us with Ohio, where the Cook Political Report forecast that Republicans stand to either have a wash or pick up a couple of seats.

1:28.1

And that's the story right now of where these maps stand.

1:31.6

Essentially, Republicans either will have a wash or pick up a couple with the maps certainly in place.

1:37.8

Okay, so the states where it's locked in may give Republicans an edge.

...

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