How Real Is This Relief Rally?

The Breakdown

Blockworks

Business, Investing

4.8 • 806 Ratings

🗓️ 22 June 2022

⏱️ 16 minutes

🔗️ Recording | iTunes | RSS

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Summary

This episode is sponsored by Nexo.io, NEAR and FTX US. On today’s show, NLW explores the discussion around the bitcoin relief rally of the last two days, following the crash last Friday and Saturday. Some think that there are a plethora of bottom signals that suggest we may have a mean reversion and return to being correlated with equities, after falling much faster than Nasdaq thanks to the Luna/Terra implosion. Others think that we won’t find a bottom until equities find a bottom, and that doesn’t seem to have happened yet. - Nexo is an all-in-one platform where you can buy crypto with a bank card and earn up to 16% interest on your assets. On the platform you can also swap 300+ market pairs and borrow against your crypto from 0% APR. Sign up at nexo.io by June 30 and receive up to $150 in BTC. - NEAR is a blockchain for a world reimagined. Through simple, secure, and scalable technology, NEAR empowers millions to invent and explore new experiences. Business, creativity, and community are being reimagined for a more sustainable and inclusive future. Find out more at NEAR.org. - FTX US is the safe, regulated way to buy Bitcoin, ETH, SOL and other digital assets. Trade crypto with up to 85% lower fees than top competitors and trade ETH and SOL NFTs with no gas fees and subsidized gas on withdrawals. Sign up at FTX.US today. - Enjoying this content? SUBSCRIBE to the Podcast Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/podcast/id1438693620?at=1000lSDb Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/538vuul1PuorUDwgkC8JWF?si=ddSvD-HST2e_E7wgxcjtfQ Google: https://podcasts.google.com/feed/aHR0cHM6Ly9ubHdjcnlwdG8ubGlic3luLmNvbS9yc3M= Join the discussion: https://discord.gg/VrKRrfKCz8 Follow on Twitter: NLW: https://twitter.com/nlw Breakdown: https://twitter.com/BreakdownNLW - “The Breakdown” is written, produced by and features Nathaniel Whittemore aka NLW, with editing by Rob Mitchell, research by Scott Hill and additional production support by Eleanor Pahl. Jared Schwartz is our executive producer and our theme music is “Countdown” by Neon Beach. The music you heard today behind our sponsors is “Catnip” by Famous Cats and “I Don't Know How To Explain It” by Aaron Sprinkle. Image credit: Rudzhan Nagiev/Getty Images, modified by CoinDesk. Join the discussion at discord.gg/VrKRrfKCz8.

Transcript

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0:00.0	Welcome back to The Breakdown with me, NLW.
0:09.1	It's a daily podcast on macro, Bitcoin, and the big picture power shifts remaking our world.
0:15.0	The breakdown is sponsored by nexo.io, near an FTX, and produced and distributed by CoinDesk.
0:22.7	What's going on, guys? It is Tuesday, June 21st, and today we're discussing how real is the
0:30.5	relief rally? Before we dive in, a couple housekeeping notes, there are two ways to listen to the
0:37.1	breakdown podcast. You can find it on
0:39.6	the Coin Desk podcast network feed, which comes out every afternoon and features the breakdown
0:44.2	and other great Coin desk shows. Or if you want to listen to the breakdown only feed, you can
0:49.1	get that in the evenings of the same day. Of course, wherever you listen, if you're enjoying the show, I would
0:55.2	love if you would take the time to give a rating or a review. It makes a huge difference with new
1:00.2	people finding the show, and I appreciate each and every one of you who takes the time to do that.
1:04.6	Lastly, a disclosure, as always, in addition to them being a sponsor of the show, I also work
1:09.5	with FTX. So this relief rally,
1:12.7	huh? It has been a weird few days in markets. Yesterday, we discussed the total washout over the
1:20.0	weekend, where Bitcoin slunk down to 17,600 or so on Saturday, breaking many hearts and more spirits. There was in this period a ton of
1:31.2	apparent capitulation. Bitcoin saw more than $7 billion worth of realized losses, which was the most
1:37.3	in a three-day stretch ever. Realized losses in this case means people selling for less than they
1:42.7	had purchased for. There was also a
1:45.0	capitulation of long-term holders as defined by coins that had been held for 155 days, which is
1:50.9	GlassNodes measure. Google searches for Bitcoin is dead and Crypto is dead reached new all-time
1:57.6	highs. Then on Sunday, though, things bounced back, with Bitcoin jumping up 16%.
2:03.1	Still, people were skeptical. On June 18th, Alex Kruger wrote, After a very large move,
	...

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