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The FTs Energy Editor Malcolm Moore tells me that there is an age-old rule in the global oil market.

When war breaks out of the Middle East, oil prices spike.

The idea is that if there's a conflict in such an oil-rich region, it could become scarce.

So typically traders buy up as many barrels as possible. But when Iran struck a U.S. air base in Qatar last Monday, it was a major escalation

in the recent conflict between Iran, the U.S. and Israel. And the market didn't spike. The opposite happened.

There was no price rise at all. Oil traders started selling. They decided the missiles were for show,

and they called it right. Oil traders bet that this war would be short-lived.

But how exactly did they hit the nail on the head?

Was it luck? Or is the way that these traders predict this market changing?

I'm Safia Ahmed from the Financial Times, in for Mikhaila Tenderendera and this is behind the money. In the middle of June, hostilities break out between Israel and Iran.

Israel just carried out a surprise attack against Iran.

Iran retaliates, hitting populated centers in Israel.

In trading fire over the next several days, over 600 Iranians die and nearly 5,000 are injured

by Israeli airstrikes.

...