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The Conversation with Dasha Burns

How not to get fooled by “biased polls” this election

The Conversation with Dasha Burns

POLITICO

Government, Politics, News

4.41.5K Ratings

🗓️ 4 October 2024

⏱️ 41 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

Joining Playbook’s Eugene Daniels on this episode of Deep Dive are two pollsters who know how to find the signal in what has been a very noisy election. John Anzalone aka “Anzo,” was Joe Biden, Hillary Clinton, and Barack Obama’s pollster. And Greg Strimple is a veteran of John McCain, Chris Christie, Rick Perry, and John Cornyn’s campaigns. Together, they dissect why this election’s polling is so close despite all the crazy news; who the swing voters are that both Trump and Harris are spending millions of dollars to reach; and if ticket-splitting is about to have a resurgence.  Ryan Lizza is a Playbook co-author for POLITICO. John Anzalone is the founder of Impact Research. Greg Strimple is the founder and president of GS Strategy Group. Kara Tabor is a producer for POLITICO audio.  Alex Keeney is a senior producer for POLITICO audio. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Transcript

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0:00.0

I am beyond ever being surprised again, to be honest.

0:04.3

It's officially October people and the surprises keep rolling in.

0:11.1

Just this past week we had a catastrophic hurricane hit the southeast,

0:15.6

escalating violence between Israel and Iran, and honestly, maybe most shocking of all,

0:21.2

a vice presidential debate between J. and Tim Wall that was civil?

0:26.5

The billion dollar question for political campaigns is, after all that's happened since last

0:31.6

spring, when Joe Biden was still the Democratic nominee and

0:35.0

Donald Trump had zero felony convictions and zero assassination attempts on him.

0:40.4

What do voters even care about what moves the needle with them in such a noisy election?

0:45.0

Now that last one may sound like a vibes question,

0:49.0

but the answer is all about the numbers.

0:52.0

So I called up two of the best posters in the game, a Republican

0:56.0

and Democrat, to find out what the best data available says. Joining me today is John Anzaloni, aka Anzo, who was Joe Biden, Hillary Clinton, and

1:06.3

Barack Obama's poster. You may have heard of them.

1:09.1

This is about changing the math of the electorate. This is about getting out young people

1:14.2

and African Americans, etc.

1:15.8

To a higher level than that we've seen

1:18.4

because you know that Trump's vote's gonna get out.

1:20.7

And Greg Strumpel, who polled for John McCain, Chris, Christie, Rick Perry, and John

1:25.2

Cornyn. I've been telling people that I think that the Trump campaign, not Donald Trump himself,

1:30.8

but the Trump campaign is doing exactly what they need to do message-wise,

1:35.1

which is talk about her being too liberal on the economy, on immigration, and the experience

...

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