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Hi, I'm Ravi Agrawal, Foreign Policy's Editor-in-Chief. This is FP Live.

So the closure of the Strait of Hormuz is like a ticking time bomb for the global economy.

Regular FP listeners know why. It is a serious disruption to the flow of a fifth of the world's oil and

natural gas. It is hitting key inputs for low-tech goods like fertilizer and clothing, but also

very high-tech ones, like semiconductors. We know intuitively that the longer the standoff with Iran

continues, the worse it gets for the global

economy. Well, now there's some data to prove the point. The International Monetary Fund

has cut its forecast for global growth this year from 3.4% to 3.1%. But those projections came

out two weeks ago and were based on the conflict resolving quickly,

a very optimistic scenario that has, of course, not yet come to pass.

So here's the pessimistic scenario.

If the flow of crude oil and natural gas is not restored until next year, the IMF expects growth to fall to 2%, a rare

occurrence in recent decades.

Inflation would rise to 6%.

...