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Hello and welcome to Coffee House Shots, the Spectator's Daily Politics Podcast. I'm Cindy Yu and I'm joined by James O'Sithe and Isabel Hardman. So today the government may be facing defeat in the comments as it looks for vote on its foreign aid cut. Isabel, can you talk about what's happened on the weekend about the numbers?

Are they building up? Yeah, so the rebels against this cut from 0.7% of gross national income to

0.5% say that they've definitely got the figures, even though the list of names that they've

released so far doesn't make the 40 that you need to defeat the government. But they've been saying

this for a while and they've been threatening ministers for a while that the government will be

defeated on a vote when it comes to the Commons. What makes it not yet a dead cert that the government

will be defeated is that concessions could be given to the rebels on certain things.

One of the things that would placate or buy off a lot of would-be rebels

is if there is some kind of binding indication that this cut is temporary

and that there is a specific time limit on the cut.

I don't think ministers will get away with just saying,

we're just doing it for the time being.

They need to say it's for X number of years

until we've recovered from the pandemic

and then we will put it back up to 0.7% as detailed in our manifesto.

Now, the manifesto point is really important

because it allows the rebels to say they're not

being rebels and they're actually being entirely loyal to their party and it's the government

that's rebelling against itself on this because the manifesto committed to the 0.7% target.

There's also the really difficult backdrop for the government of the G7 summit taking place.

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