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Goldman Sachs Exchanges

How much higher can bond yields go?

Goldman Sachs Exchanges

Goldman Sachs

Business

4.41K Ratings

🗓️ 7 March 2023

⏱️ 29 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

Stronger economic data has recently raised concerns that inflation is likely to remain stickier than expected. In the latest episode of Exchanges at Goldman Sachs, Rick Rieder, chief investment officer of Global Fixed Income at BlackRock, and Praveen Korapaty, chief interest rates strategist at Goldman Sachs Research, say interest rates have somewhat further to climb and are likely to stay at higher levels for longer. Rieder and Korapaty also share their views on the global outlook for bonds across Europe and Japan, as well as the implications for investors. This episode is based on Goldman Sachs’ most recent Top of Mind report, (Japanese) Bonds, Bonds, Bonds.

Transcript

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0:00.0

Stronger economic data has recently raised concerns that inflation is likely to remain stickier than expected.

0:07.0

So how much higher could interest rates go?

0:09.0

I think we're getting close to the top of the mountain, and I just think we're going to sit at the top for a long time.

0:14.3

I'm Allison Nathan and this is exchanges at Goldman Sachs.

0:21.5

To help us understand the direction of interest rates and the implications for investors,

0:26.2

I spoke with Rick Reader, Chief Investment Officer of Global Fixed Income at Black Rock,

0:30.8

as well as Praveen Corapotti, chief interest

0:33.2

strategist in Goldman Sachs research. We first turned to Rick for some

0:36.9

context on the drivers of the bond market's performance this year.

0:40.9

It would be useful to just get some context and obviously we entered

0:45.2

this year with bond markets rallying and a lot of people interpreted that in

0:50.0

different ways. So how did you interpret heading into the year?

0:53.7

I think there's a couple of things. First of all, you know, one of the things I've found about

0:56.8

the industry is that there's this extraordinary focus on surveys and I've never really

1:01.0

understood. By the way, I've learned it's like election polls.

1:04.0

They like, people all go the same way.

1:05.8

They were say the same thing at the same time.

1:08.0

It's we go to November, December.

1:09.9

It was this ubiquitous view that the economy is going on a recession or deep recession.

1:15.1

It was just a question of how deep this recession would be.

1:18.0

And of course, I forget that that was overdone.

1:19.7

And I don't believe that we're going into recession.

...

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