How Gaza could decide the election

Today, Explained

Vox

Daily News, Politics, News

4.4 • 9.5K Ratings

🗓️ 4 November 2024

⏱️ 28 minutes

🔗️ Recording | iTunes | RSS

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Summary

The key battleground state of Michigan could be decided by Arab American voters disappointed with Democrats' handling of the war in Gaza. Detroit Free Press opinion editor Khalil AlHajal and Michigan State University political scientist Matt Grossmann explain the stakes. This episode was produced by Miles Bryan, edited by Matt Collette, fact-checked by Laura Bullard, engineered by Andrea Kristinsdottir and Rob Byers, and hosted by Noel King. Transcript at vox.com/today-explained-podcast Support Today, Explained by becoming a Vox Member today: http://www.vox.com/members Buttons being handed out during early voting in Ann Arbor, Michigan. Photo by JEFF KOWALSKY / AFP via Getty Images. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Transcript

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0:00.0	It's today explained. More than 78 million Americans have already voted in the 2024 election.
0:07.0	Polling still shows a very, very close race. This weekend, a shocking little poll from the Des Moines
0:12.0	Register showed Kamala Harris three points ahead of Donald Trump in Iowa.
0:17.0	And the prototypical example of a gold standard poll is the Iowa poll done by Jay Ann Selzer in Iowa.
0:24.5	Her polls are known for their uncanny predictive accuracy.
0:28.5	Iowa last broke for the Democrat, Barack Obama in 2012.
0:32.1	It was expected to go to Trump this year.
0:34.2	So what is this new poll mean?
0:36.5	Well, we don't know.
0:39.1	The real polling was the friends we made along the way. We do know that seven states will decide this election. One of them is
0:43.6	Michigan. More than 200,000 Arab Americans live there, and many of them say they are voting on
0:49.2	Gaza. If they do, the state that Joe Biden won in 2020 may go as it did in 2016 for Donald Trump.
0:57.7	Michigan coming up.
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	...

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