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Real Vision: Finance & Investing

How Fragile Is the Global Funding System?

Real Vision: Finance & Investing

Real Vision

Business News, News, Investing, Business

4.11.1K Ratings

🗓️ 26 March 2022

⏱️ 40 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

Inflation is at four-decade highs in the U.S., and supply constraints caused by the war in Eastern Europe only increase upward pressure on crucial commodities. The Federal Reserve is laser-focused on the issue, to the point where futures markets are now pricing in more than nine rate hikes in 2022. And the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note hit a two-year high on Friday, reaching 2.503% on expectations of aggressive tightening ahead. Still, the Fed is sticking with a relatively robust growth forecast. Investors are clear on the Fed’s path. It remains to be seen how Chinese policymakers will respond to threats to growth and stability. As the world continues to respond to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, it becomes clearer that major shifts are in process. Will the Chinese yuan ever overtake the U.S. dollar in the global currency hierarchy? What role could Bitcoin play in a revamped global system? More immediately, are we on the verge of a global liquidity crisis? Michael Howell, managing director at CrossBorder Capital, joins Tony Greer to discuss these issues and more on today’s edition of Real Vision Daily Briefing. Got questions? Drop them on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3JGuIZz Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Transcript

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0:00.0

Good afternoon, everyone. Welcome to the Real Vision Daily Briefing for March 25th.

0:11.5

I'm Tony Greer, Editor of the Morning Navigator. I'm going to be joined very shortly by Michael

0:17.2

Howell of Cross-Border Capital Live from Oxford in the UK, who has got a really interesting

0:23.6

angle on markets. First, I want to go over and sort of speed round fashion. What has gone on

0:30.0

this week to get everyone caught up to date? First yields are flying. US 2-year yields ran from

0:36.3

194 last week to close around 2.3 percent this week. Fed balance sheet ticked up this week.

0:43.6

Break even 5-year closes at 3.7 percent. A new high for the move. Superinflation area alongside

0:50.0

this commodity bananza. We were seeing Bloomberg commodity index up 5 percent this week.

0:56.8

Sidebar with a strong dollar. Once again, oil up 8.5 percent to 113. Natural gas up 15 percent to

1:04.8

55. Aluminum up 7 percent. Volting off moving average support. Gold up a couple of percent to

1:12.3

1950. Greens up a couple of percent working their way towards the high. The S&P up 2 percent

1:19.4

driven by a two and a half for tradesmen bouncing fang stocks toward their resistance levels.

1:25.2

The heart of the great rotation. We had the VIX fall to a low for the move at 21.

1:30.5

The oil and gas, E&P industrial metals all rallied over 6 percent. Home builders fell 8 percent

1:37.6

behind 10 percent slides in lows in Home Depot. Tech was in the middle very very mixed.

1:44.5

Now let's get to a little bit more deeper analysis with my man Michael Howell.

1:50.2

Michael, talk to me today. How you doing? All right.

1:52.6

It's pretty good Tony. Thanks. Good. I watched your interview with Slash Bennington, my man,

1:58.3

and I was really really excited and drawn into how you look at the markets are totally driven

2:04.1

by liquidity. Do you want to talk a little bit about how cross-border looks at the world first

2:09.6

and then we'll go over a couple specific questions about the markets? Sure. Yeah. I mean for us the

2:15.6

key thing is liquidity. We track liquidity across what is it now about 90 central banks or

...

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