How COVID-19 Decreases Weather Forecast Accuracy
Science Quickly
Scientific American
4.4 • 1.4K Ratings
🗓️ 23 July 2020
⏱️ 3 minutes
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| 0:00.0 | This is a passenger announcement. You can now book your train on Uber and get 10% back in credits to spend on Uber eats. |
| 0:11.0 | So you can order your own fries instead of eating everyone else's. |
| 0:15.0 | Trains, now on Uber. T's and C's apply. Check the Uber app. |
| 0:20.0 | This is Scientific American 60 Second Science. |
| 0:27.0 | I'm Julia Rosen. |
| 0:28.0 | Here are two things that you probably didn't think were connected, |
| 0:32.0 | the COVID-19 pandemic and weather forecasts. But there is a link. |
| 0:39.2 | Commercial air travel. As jetliners carry passengers around the world, they also collect vital weather |
| 0:45.1 | measurements like air temperature and wind speed. During the pandemic, however, |
| 0:49.5 | air travel has come almost to a halt. In February, let's say we have 100% and then in March, we go down by half and April go |
| 0:59.0 | town by another half. |
| 1:00.5 | So currently, possibly we just have one quarter of aircraft learning so you can |
| 1:05.5 | imagine the gap of observations. |
| 1:08.0 | Ying Chen a meteorologist at the University of Lancaster in England. To create weather forecasts, meteorologists need to |
| 1:15.3 | feed accurate information about current weather conditions into their models, and |
| 1:19.7 | Plains are one of the best ways to get such info since they sample the atmosphere at different |
| 1:24.4 | altitudes and locations. But with the coronavirus grounding flights around the world, |
| 1:29.5 | meteorologists are feeling the loss. |
| 1:31.9 | I have analyzed three months of spring which is March |
| 1:35.6 | April and May and I see temperature, wind speed, the forecast accuracy all goes down. |
| 1:42.0 | Forecast quality declined the most for long the forecast |
| 1:43.0 | quality declined the most for long-range projections |
... |
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