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Science Quickly

How COVID-19 Decreases Weather Forecast Accuracy

Science Quickly

Scientific American

Science

4.41.4K Ratings

🗓️ 23 July 2020

⏱️ 3 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

Meteorologists take advantage of weather data collected by commercial jetliners at different altitudes and locations. Fewer flights mean less data. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Transcript

Click on a timestamp to play from that location

0:00.0

This is a passenger announcement. You can now book your train on Uber and get 10% back in credits to spend on Uber eats.

0:11.0

So you can order your own fries instead of eating everyone else's.

0:15.0

Trains, now on Uber. T's and C's apply. Check the Uber app.

0:20.0

This is Scientific American 60 Second Science.

0:27.0

I'm Julia Rosen.

0:28.0

Here are two things that you probably didn't think were connected,

0:32.0

the COVID-19 pandemic and weather forecasts. But there is a link.

0:39.2

Commercial air travel. As jetliners carry passengers around the world, they also collect vital weather

0:45.1

measurements like air temperature and wind speed. During the pandemic, however,

0:49.5

air travel has come almost to a halt. In February, let's say we have 100% and then in March, we go down by half and April go

0:59.0

town by another half.

1:00.5

So currently, possibly we just have one quarter of aircraft learning so you can

1:05.5

imagine the gap of observations.

1:08.0

Ying Chen a meteorologist at the University of Lancaster in England. To create weather forecasts, meteorologists need to

1:15.3

feed accurate information about current weather conditions into their models, and

1:19.7

Plains are one of the best ways to get such info since they sample the atmosphere at different

1:24.4

altitudes and locations. But with the coronavirus grounding flights around the world,

1:29.5

meteorologists are feeling the loss.

1:31.9

I have analyzed three months of spring which is March

1:35.6

April and May and I see temperature, wind speed, the forecast accuracy all goes down.

1:42.0

Forecast quality declined the most for long the forecast

1:43.0

quality declined the most for long-range projections

...

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