How China Might Actually Handle a US Trade War

Odd Lots

Bloomberg

News, Investing, Business, News Commentary, Business News

4.4 • 1.6K Ratings

🗓️ 8 May 2025

⏱️ 55 minutes

🔗️ Recording | iTunes | RSS

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Summary

By now, everyone recognizes that the US and China are in the middle of a trade war, with the Trump administration having imposed tariffs of as much as 125% on Chinese goods. For an export-focused economy like China's, that's a big deal. At the same time, China is pretty much the only major country that's chosen to retaliate against the US with its own set of fresh trade restrictions. So why did it decide to reciprocate? And what's its negotiating position as the US and China head into initial talks? Can the Chinese economy -- and its policymakers -- withstand the pain of a trade war? We speak to Arthur Kroeber, head of research at Gavekal Dragonomics and a long-time China watcher, about how China might actually respond to the new tariff regime.

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1:00.0	Hello and welcome to another episode of the Odd Lots podcast. I'm Tracy Allo.
1:01.3	And I'm Joe Wisenthal.
1:12.6	So, Joe, one thing I find interesting about China, or maybe I should say one thing I find interesting about how the world views China is it seems to be this economy that is always simultaneously a massive competitive threat, especially to the U.S.
1:18.9	Sure.
1:19.4	And then simultaneously, it always seems to be on the verge of some big disaster caused by too much debt or bad demographics or the collapse of the housing market and so on.
1:29.7	So for as long as I can remember, China has been a bundle of contradictions.
1:35.2	No, totally. And look, there are very good reporters on China and there are very good analysts on China.
1:41.2	But throughout my entire career, I completely agree with you. There has always
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