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TED Talks Daily

How can groups make good decisions? | Mariano Sigman and Dan Ariely

TED Talks Daily

TED

Ted, Ted Talks, Society & Culture, Ted Talks Daily, Ted Podcast

4.112.1K Ratings

🗓️ 6 December 2017

⏱️ 9 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

We all know that when we make decisions in groups, they don't always go right -- and sometimes they go very wrong. How can groups make good decisions? With his colleague Dan Ariely, neuroscientist Mariano Sigman has been inquiring into how we interact to reach decisions by performing experiments with live crowds around the world. In this fun, fact-filled explainer, he shares some intriguing results -- as well as some implications for how it might impact our political system. In a time when people seem to be more polarized than ever, Sigman says, better understanding how groups interact and reach conclusions might spark interesting new ways to construct a healthier democracy.



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Transcript

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0:00.0

This talk features neuroscientist Mariano Sigman, recorded at TED studio in 2017.

0:07.0

As societies, we have to make collective decisions that will shape our future.

0:13.0

And we all know that when we make decisions in groups, they don't always go right.

0:17.0

And sometimes they go very wrong.

0:20.0

So how do groups make good decisions? Research has shown

0:24.3

that crowds are wise when there's independent thinking. This is why the wisdom of the crowds can

0:29.2

be destroyed by peer pressure, publicity, social media, or sometimes even simple conversations

0:34.5

that influence how people think. On the other hand, by talking, a group could exchange knowledge,

0:41.0

correct and revise each other, and even come up with new ideas.

0:44.6

And this is all good.

0:46.5

So does talking to each other help or hinder collective decision-making?

0:51.6

With my colleague Dan Ariely, we recently began inquiring into this by performing experiments

0:56.7

in many places around the world to figure out how groups can interact to reach better

1:02.2

decisions.

1:03.3

We thought crowds would be wiser if they debated in small groups that foster a more thoughtful

1:08.5

and reasonable exchange of information.

1:15.6

To test this idea, we recently performed an experiment in Buenos Aires, Argentina, with more than 10,000 participants in a TEDx event.

1:18.6

We asked them questions like, what is the height of the Eiffel Tower,

1:22.6

and how many times as the word yesterday appear in the Beatlesiddle song yesterday. Each person wrote down their

1:29.4

own estimate. Then we divided the crowd into groups of five and invited them to come up with a group

1:35.2

answer. We discovered that averaging the answers of the groups after they reached consensus

1:40.6

was much more accurate than averaging all the individual opinions before debating.

...

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