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The Ezra Klein Show

How Bad Could the Iran Oil Crisis Get?

The Ezra Klein Show

New York Times Opinion

News, Government, Society & Culture

4.314.5K Ratings

🗓️ 24 March 2026

⏱️ 62 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

Iran has currently shut off more than 10 percent of the world’s oil supply. If that goes on for a lot longer — or if the war escalates to include more strikes on energy infrastructure in the region — the price of oil could go through the roof, and the damage to the global economy could be catastrophic. So what would that look like? What tools does the United States have to avert it? And how is this crisis already reverberating in countries around the world? Jason Bordoff is the founding director of the Center on Global Energy Policy at Columbia University and a founding dean of the Columbia Climate School. He served as a special assistant to President Barack Obama and senior director for energy and climate change on the National Security Council. In this conversation, Bordoff answers all my questions about the crisis so far and how things could spin out from here, the strategic positioning of the United States, Europe, Iran, Russia and China, the developing countries likely to suffer the most and the lessons the world might take from this. Mentioned: “Making the U.S. More Resilient to Oil Price Shocks” by Jason Bordoff and Spencer Dale “The Return of the Energy Weapon” by Jason Bordoff and Meghan L. O’Sullivan Book Recommendations: Material World by Ed Conway More and More and More by Jean-Baptiste Fressoz Deliver Me from Nowhere by Warren Zanes Thoughts? Guest suggestions? Email us at ezrakleinshow@nytimes.com. You can find transcripts (posted midday) and more episodes of “The Ezra Klein Show” at nytimes.com/ezra-klein-podcast, and you can find Ezra on Twitter @ezraklein. Book recommendations from all our guests are listed at https://www.nytimes.com/article/ezra-klein-show-book-recs.

Transcript

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0:00.0

The

0:07.0

The If you want to see just how bad this energy crisis can become, just read what President Trump and Iran are saying to each other.

0:40.3

On Saturday night, Trump posted amissive to truth social. He wrote,

0:46.2

if Iran doesn't fully open without threat, the Strait of Hormuz, within 48 hours from this

0:51.9

exact point in time, the United States of America will hit and

0:55.9

obliterate their various power plants, starting with the biggest one first. It's a brutal threat

1:04.3

meant to make Iran back down. It did the opposite. In response, the Speaker of the Iranian Parliament

1:10.4

said immediately after the power plants and infrastructure in our country are It did the opposite. In response, the Speaker of the Iranian Parliament said,

1:11.2

immediately after the power plants and infrastructure in our country are targeted,

1:16.0

the critical infrastructure, the energy infrastructure, and oil facilities through the region,

1:22.6

will be considered legitimate targets and will be destroyed in an irreversible manner,

1:26.7

and the price of oil will remain

1:28.5

high for a long time. I'm recording this on the morning of Monday, March 23rd. As I woke up today,

1:36.2

oil prices had fallen a bit because Trump had extended his 48-hour deadline by five days, citing

1:42.3

positive talks with the Iranians. Iran is denying any such talks

1:46.4

have happened. They say Trump is backing down out of fear. They've already hit energy infrastructure

1:51.4

in the region, so their threat is credible. But I don't pretend to know the truth here. The news

1:56.3

and the price of oil and gas are changing radically by the hour.

2:03.6

But here is a key fact that has not changed yet.

2:06.7

The Strait of Hormuz remains mostly closed.

2:10.8

If it stays closed, and even more so if the war expands,

2:14.3

if Iran destroys more energy infrastructure through the region and the U.S. and Israel destroy it inside Iran,

...

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