How a Geopolitical Analyst Predicts the Outcome of War

Odd Lots

Bloomberg

News, Investing, Business, News Commentary, Business News

4.4 • 1.6K Ratings

🗓️ 10 July 2025

⏱️ 48 minutes

🔗️ Recording | iTunes | RSS

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Summary

For investors, geopolitical risks are always lurking as a factor that could upend trades for obvious reasons. When war breaks out, it's crucial to have some kind of understanding of what it will mean for various markets (such as oil or grain) and how long the conflict can persist. But is there any way to analyze these things scientifically? Many people are paid by investors to try to do exactly this. On this episode, we speak with Andrew Bishop, the global head of policy research at Signum Global, about what he does, and how he attempts to forecast the future. We use the recent conflict between Israel and Iran (as well as other sources of global tension) to get a better understanding of how he goes about forecasting, how investors use his research, and what he sees going forward.

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1:22.8	Hello and welcome to another episode of the Odd Lots podcast. I'm Tracy Allaway.
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1:33.2	Joe, do you ever experience a sudden surge in geopolitical analysis emails in your inbox?
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