HousingWire’s 2025 Housing Market Predictions: Rates, Prices, and More

On The Market

BiggerPockets

News, Investing, Business, Education

4.8 • 820 Ratings

🗓️ 2 December 2024

⏱️ 34 minutes

🔗️ Recording | iTunes | RSS

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Summary

It’s the season for housing market predictions, and we know who to call! Altos Research and HousingWire’s Mike Simonsen joins the show to share where his team thinks mortgage rates, home prices, housing inventory, and buyer demand will be in 2025. Every year, the HousingWire team puts together a phenomenal housing market forecast, touching on the topics investors, agents, lenders, and housing nerds care about while recapping the wildest surprises of the year prior. Will mortgage rates finally fall below six percent in 2025? Will home prices dip with housing inventory up a substantial percentage year-over-year? And could agents and lenders finally get some relief with home sales, or will we still see sluggish purchasing and buyer activity? Not to spoil it, but Mike is optimistic about the 2025 housing market and what will come over the next twelve months. Mike breaks down each prediction and what could affect YOU the most, whether you’re buying or selling homes. Plus, he shares the one metric his team is watching carefully to see which direction the 2025 housing market is headed. In This Episode We Cover HousingWire’s 2025 housing market forecast and 2024 housing market recap The mortgage rate range you can expect over the next twelve months Home price growth and exactly how much the HousingWire team expects in 2025 Why housing inventory is starting to climb again (and whether it will continue in 2025) One metric Mike and his team are paying very close attention to in 2025 The market’s reaction to the 2024 election and President-Elect Trump’s win And So Much More! Links from the Show Join the Future of Real Estate Investing with Fundrise Join BiggerPockets for FREE Find Investor-Friendly Lenders Dave's BiggerPockets Profile On The Market Podcast 269 - 2025 Housing Market Predictions (+ How’d We Do Last Time?) Altos Research HousingWire’s 2025 Housing Market Forecast Get Ready to Invest in 2025 with Dave’s Book, “Start with Strategy” Jump to topic: (00:00) Intro (01:05) Biggest Surprise of 2024 (03:17) Housing Inventory Up 27%! (08:42) American Migration Freezes (12:57) 2025 Mortgage Rates (16:46) More Homes on the Market? (18:20) Post-Election Housing Market Changes (27:08) Home Price Forecast (27:49) One Thing to WATCH Check out more resources from this show on BiggerPockets.com and https://www.biggerpockets.com/blog/on-the-market-274 Interested in learning more about today’s sponsors or becoming a BiggerPockets partner yourself? Email [email protected]. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Transcript

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0:00.0	It is officially prediction season and today's guest is someone who never takes his eyes off the data.
0:06.5	Mike Simonson of Altos Research is here to give us an update on the housing market as we close out 2024 and give us a preview of what he anticipates for the coming year.
0:21.8	Hey friends, it's Dave.
0:23.6	Welcome to On the Market, the real estate news and economic show where we like to have some fun while keeping you informed.
0:30.9	And I truly love asking people to make predictions because no one likes doing it, but it's kind of fun.
0:37.2	And even though no one is ever always right but it's kind of fun. And even though
0:38.1	no one is ever always right with these predictions, I do think it is helpful to hear how
0:43.2	people are thinking through these unknowable questions about what's going to happen in the coming
0:49.5	year. And in today's episode, Mike threw out a prediction on mortgage rates without me even asking,
0:56.0	and he put some great logic and thinking behind it. And I think it's going to help you all
1:00.6	forecast what might happen in the year to come. So at that, let's bring on Mike.
1:12.8	Mike, welcome back to On the Market.
1:13.9	Thanks for joining us.
1:15.3	It's always great to be here.
1:18.1	Yeah, it is a pleasure to have you back.
1:23.7	Always one of the most informed analysts and watcher of the housing market that we can have.
1:24.9	So this is going to be a treat.
1:29.9	We are, Mike, of course, winding down 2024. So let me just start by asking you, did this year shape up how you were expecting it or did anything surprise
1:36.7	you in the housing market in 2024? I think anybody who is in this spot a year ago talking about 2024, we were consistently surprised
1:49.6	that mortgage rates stayed as high as they did for as long as they did. There were a lot of
1:55.2	folks in the beginning of 24 that thought mortgage rates would be in the fives during the year.
2:02.6	And, you know, we were in the upper sixes and the sevens, back up in the sevens now. So as a result, home sales did not
	...

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