Housing Comes Center Stage
The Dividend Cafe
The Dividend Cafe - The Bahnsen Group
4.9 • 572 Ratings
🗓️ 27 May 2022
⏱️ 22 minutes
🧾️ Download transcript
Summary
I really do not know how today’s Dividend Cafe is going to be received. I obviously believe in every word of what I have typed or I wouldn’t have typed them, yet I have found two things to be the case in my efforts at thought leadership in matters of markets and economics:
(1) People sometimes do not like it when I veer off of a stock market focus, and
(2) People do not like hearing what they do not want to hear
The first one is more problematic when it comes to things like the bond market or public policy or monetary policy or alternative investing – the excitement of the stock market sometimes has to take a backseat to other matters that are absolutely integrally connected to it!
But the second one is what I am worried about today. In over 20 years of professionally stewarding client assets, I have never seen investors be as emotional about any “asset class” as they are about housing. And if all that meant was “people are nostalgic and protective about where they live” – that would be one thing. But that is not what I mean. Opinions about the residential real estate market are, shall we say, sometimes laced with emotion, sometimes perhaps delusion, and often with various presuppositions that are hard for me to make sense of at times.
Housing is back front and center in financial discussions, and all I want to do today in the Dividend Cafe is make sense of it, and give you some wisdom and insights that I believe will be useful in a holistic commentary of the day. So to that end, I work. We’ll still be friends if anything I say bothers you.
Let’s jump into the Dividend Cafe for a special Housing edition …
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
Transcript
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| 0:00.0 | Welcome to the Dividing Cafe weekly market commentary focused on dividends in your portfolio and dividends in your understanding of economic life. |
| 0:10.0 | Well, hello and welcome to another Dividing Cafe, a kind of special edition this week as we get ready for the holiday weekend. |
| 0:20.0 | I do hope you all have a nice Memorial Day weekend |
| 0:22.6 | and get ready for the sort of launch of summer, if you will. We will not have a D.C. today on |
| 0:31.3 | Monday because of the holiday, but then we'll be back into normal office mode and writing mode by Tuesday, |
| 0:38.5 | which of course will also be the last day of the month of May, |
| 0:42.0 | and we'll get ready to kick off June in the middle of next week. |
| 0:45.7 | But with that said, I do think that this week's Dividy Cafe is sort of a fun one |
| 0:49.7 | in the sense that I am so used to writing Divida Cafe every week with a heavy center around |
| 0:57.6 | financial markets, macroeconomics, monetary policy. |
| 1:04.1 | Obviously, the stock market, you know, fits into all of that front and center. |
| 1:08.7 | And I'm purposely today devoted exclusively the subject |
| 1:13.1 | of the housing market. And I'm even going to get a little bit personal and kind of biographical to some |
| 1:18.4 | degree. But I think this subject is going to become one of the major topics in financial |
| 1:23.9 | press for the rest of the year and into next year. And I'm hoping that there can be a few nuggets of wisdom shared here today that'll be |
| 1:31.0 | useful to you and how you think about the housing market. |
| 1:36.2 | Now, look, housing is not something that is going to be coming up or is starting to come up |
| 1:42.0 | now for the first time. |
| 1:45.7 | You know, the mother of all bubbles that burst in 2008 had at its ground zero, the U.S. residential housing market. |
| 1:56.6 | And I think that there is a tendency to always believe that the next crisis or problem is going to look like the last crisis or problem. |
| 2:09.1 | And when people ask me what my outlook is on housing, it is uncanny how often they are contextualizing that question with some form of, |
| 2:21.1 | will it be another 08? Are we looking at 08? How do we avoid what happened in 08 and so forth? |
... |
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