Holy Smoke: could religious voters in the swing states decide the US election?

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🗓️ 6 October 2024

⏱️ 30 minutes

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Summary

The US presidential election looks as if it’s coming down to the wire in a handful of battleground states. Neither Kamala Harris nor Donald Trump has established a clear lead, and that raises the question of whether, even in today’s increasingly secular America, evangelical Christians could give former president Trump a crucial advantage in the rust belt. On the other hand, could his role in the demise of Roe v Wade tilt the race towards Harris?

In this episode of Holy Smoke, Damian Thompson talks to Dr Melissa Deckman, CEO of the Public Religion Research Institute, a specialist in the influence of religion on US politics, and Justin Webb, presenter of BBC Radio 4’s Today programme, widely respected as an impartial commentator on presidential campaigns.

Produced by Patrick Gibbons.

Transcript

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0:00.0	The Spectator magazine is home to wonderful writing, insightful analysis, and unrivaled books and arts reviews.
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0:11.2	Alongside that, you get a 20-pound John Lewis or Waitrose Voucher.
0:14.7	Go to spectator.com.uk forward slash voucher.
0:28.4	Welcome to Holy Smoke, the Spectator's Religion podcast.
0:30.4	I'm Damien Thompson. I'm Damien Thompson. This year's American presidential election is looking excruciatingly tight.
0:47.4	In the swing states that will decide whether Donald Trump or Kamala Harris becomes president,
0:53.1	most of the polls show again and again tiny leads by
0:57.6	either candidate within the margin of error. That's why religion, generally a declining force in
1:04.3	American politics, could really matter this time round. If in the crucial states of Michigan, Wisconsin or Pennsylvania,
1:13.5	even a relatively small number of evangelical votes are fired up for Trump, or a relatively small
1:19.9	number of previously Republican voting women, blame him for the end of Roe versus Wade,
1:26.0	that could be decisive. The American religious landscape
1:29.2	is changing fast and in very significant ways. A so-called God gap has opened up. Thirty-four
1:37.8	percent of Democrats have no fixed religious belief compared to just 11 percent in the 1990s. Today, 15% of Republican supporters are
1:48.8	nuns. Same thing, no religious affiliation. That's compared to 6% in the 90s. So, actually,
1:56.6	they're moving in the same direction. Nonetheless, there's this huge God gap,
2:01.6	because as the religious demographer, Ryan Birch, has pointed out,
2:05.7	the difference in the nuns between the two parties was five points in the 90s.
2:11.2	Today, it's 19 points.
2:13.3	And more than half of young Democrats are atheist, agnostic, or nothing in particular.
2:20.3	Is this good news for Harris? Not necessarily. Not if these young agnostic Democrats are piled up
	...

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