I'm going to keep running with a theme that I've used many

I'm gonna keep running with a theme

that I've used many times on this podcast and was my most recent book, which is just the overall

belief that it is far more important to find things to think about what might possibly change in our

future going forward. It's based off this idea that I've had and that I've noticed over my career that markets

change but greed and fear never do. And industries change, but ambition and complacency don't. Laws change,

regulations change, but the tribal instincts do not change.

So my deepest forecasting belief is that you can better understand the future.

If you focus on the behaviors that never change instead of the events that might change.

And those behaviors always have a common denominator.

And that's what today's episode is about. Most of that common

denominator is that the behaviors that don't change follow the path of least

resistance of people trying to simplify a complex world

into a few stories that make sense and make them feel good about themselves.

That's a really important part.

People like simple stories and they like feel good stories.

Stories that are easy to understand and make them feel really good about their position in the world.

Those are some of history's most seductive beliefs and I think they always will be.

So let me share with you a few of them that tend to stick out.

All right, number one, having an illusion

that other people's bad circumstances could not also happen to you.

Most of history is slow progress amid constant bad news and occasionally terrible news.

...