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The Dividend Cafe

History and Opportunity

The Dividend Cafe

The Dividend Cafe - The Bahnsen Group

Estate Planning, Dividend Growth Investing, Monetary Policy, Business, Wealth Management, Macro Economics, Retirement Planning, Investing

4.9572 Ratings

🗓️ 3 July 2020

⏱️ 15 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

In this week's Dividend Cafe we will look at:

The real lesson of 2020 so far, evidenced in Q1 being the 9th worst quarter in history, and Q2 being the 9th best quarter in history, and what behavioral lessons some investors may want to pick up from this. We do an extensive dive into what lies ahead for 2020, and our views on economic recovery, stimulus, a vaccine, volatility, and so much more.

What the jobs report yesterday did to encourage us, and what is still lacking - and will be for quite some time

Why Fed liquidity provisions may or may not matter to the real economy (i.e. jobs), but certainly matter to investors

The under-appreciated tensions coming to the surface with China after Bejing's passage of this Hong Kong security measure.

What history says about an investor's timeline and corresponding expectation

How foreign investors apparently feel about American markets right now

And all the economic data for the week to form that perfectly mixed picture of ambiguity.  Retail.  Consumption.  Jobs.  Capex.  Copper.  Checking account balances. We have it all.

And in Politics & Money ... the betting odds are blowing out for Joe Biden; what does that mean for investors, and what might the next three months of the stock market tell us about what to expect in November

Finally, in the Chart of the Week, some calendar history to take us home

Let's jump in to the Dividend Cafe!

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Transcript

Click on a timestamp to play from that location

0:00.0

Welcome to the Dividing Cafe weekly market commentary focused on dividends in your portfolio

0:06.6

and dividends in your understanding of economic life.

0:12.2

Hello and welcome to a special 4th of July weekend Dividing Cafe podcast. This is David

0:18.5

Bonson, the chief investment officer, managing partner here at

0:22.3

the Bonson Group. And those of you watch you on video, you can tell that I am actually sitting in a

0:29.4

different spot than normal. I'm at a hotel in Sag Harbor, New York, where I'm away with my family

0:34.0

for the weekend. We get all settled in our new home in East Hampton here in a few

0:38.7

days and I'm more or less working out of my Manhattan office starting next week for the next

0:46.2

five weeks or so. And it's interesting being in New York, being back in the city for most of

0:53.2

this week, I definitely got a chance

0:56.2

to see something that I think parallels or has some sort of metaphorical connectivity to what

1:04.1

is happening in the economy at large and what we saw in the jobs report today. And that is a city

1:10.6

that is opening, but not fully reopened. In other words,

1:14.8

it is progressing. You see different things moving, but nowhere near, have we arrived nowhere

1:21.2

near to the final destination. And so the Thursday jobs report that showed 4.8 million jobs are covered.

1:29.4

When analysts were expecting 3.2 million, it outperformed by 50%.

1:35.0

Okay, that's a massive miss for economists, analysts, to once again underestimate the

1:42.1

robustness of the jobs recovery recovery but I don't say that

1:46.8

critically because I do think it's very difficult to get a feel for what to expect out there

1:52.3

the trajectory of improvement is very impressive but there there is still a substantial amount many millions of unemployed people, and there's a lot of

2:05.2

room to go. We have an 11.1% unemployment rate. So it's half of where it was at that low point

2:12.6

of when they had shut down the entire country. But it's still two and a half times higher than it was pre-COVID.

...

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