We're watching what could end up being a political earthquake tonight. We'll see. I mean,

it's been one hour since polls closed in the special congressional election in Tennessee,

and the entire political world is watching all of these results like a hawk tonight. We certainly are.

And as of now, that that race is too early to call with about half the vote in. This is a very, very tight race, just over half the vote in.

And here's the thing I really need to underline. Chris just mentioned this, but it's important to keep

underlining. Trump won the district, Tennessee 7, by 22 points just last year. 22 points.

A Democrat has absolutely no business winning here, even a great candidate. And a bunch of

national Republican groups have had to spend a boatload of money that they really shouldn't

have to spend in such a deep red district. Money is not unlimited in political campaigns or in

national party committees. And they're spending a lot here,

and so we're outside super PACs. So if this race is even close, which it's looking to be at a minimum,

it will be a big, big, big warning sign for Trump and the Republican Party that their hold on

power could be slipping very quickly. One senior House Republican told Politico today that, quote,

if our victory margin is single digits,

the conference may come unhinged.

Well, we'll look forward to watching that if that's the case.

Now, if these early vote numbers are any indication,

the conference might indeed come unhinged

because they're looking very good right now for Afton Bain.

And this is the first election night since those massive Democratic wins in New Jersey and Virginia last month.

But even before that, in all four special House elections this year, Democrats have dramatically improved their margins over 2024, dramatically.

Outperforming by between 16 and 22 points.

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