Having A Poll For Dinner
Politix
Politix
4.6 • 1.4K Ratings
🗓️ 15 May 2024
⏱️ 45 minutes
🔗️ Recording | iTunes | RSS
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Summary
This week, Matt and Brian take a granular look at the latest New York Times/Siena data, which finds Joe Biden losing most swing states, and well behind in the sunbelt states of Nevada, Arizona, and Georgia, which he won in 2020. They discuss whether:
* Biden’s post-State of the Union poll bounce was illusory, or a hint at what might help him turn the election around;
* Post-inflation grumpiness is hamstringing Biden, just like other world leaders, or if something unique to Biden (his age, the U.S. information environment) explains his peculiar unpopularity;
* The issues voters say they’re fixed on (inflation, immigration, and crime) are creating genuine problems in their lives, or are merely evidence of successful, unopposed, Republican propaganda.
Then, behind the paywall, Brian and Matt interpret the poll data per se: What’s the optimistic read of the numbers? What’s the pessimistic read? Is it time to revive the debate over whether Biden should yield to a younger candidate with less baggage? Or does he still have time to prove the doubters and haters wrong? Answers to all those questions, plus the full Politix archive are available to paid subscribers—just upgrade your subscription and pipe full episodes directly to your favorite podcast app via your own private feed.
Further reading:
* Brian on Democrats’ mysterious aversion to setting the national discourse agenda, and how it hurts them badly.
* Learning From Loss by .
* Matt on the misinformation that truly matters.
Transcript
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| 0:00.0 | They're playing like a football team that's like up 10 and is going to spend the whole |
| 0:06.4 | fourth quarter killing the clock. But it's an insane thing to do if you're |
| 0:10.0 | losing. But they're losing! Hey everyone, you're listening to a free preview of the politics podcast. |
| 0:20.4 | In this episode we're going to take a granular look at the most recent New York Times poll which like most polls these days shows Joe Biden poised to lose nearly all of the swing states. |
| 0:32.0 | This particular poll points to the prevalence of ticket |
| 0:35.7 | splitting. State-level Democrats in the same poll are doing very well and thus that |
| 0:40.3 | Biden may not be the optimal candidate to run against Donald Trump. |
| 0:45.2 | So we'll give the numbers an optimistic read, a pessimistic read, and then try to sort out |
| 0:50.7 | why Biden's doing uniquely badly among Democrats and what if anything he and his |
| 0:55.7 | campaign can do about that. I hope you enjoy the conversation and if you want to |
| 1:00.0 | hear the whole thing you can upgrade your subscription to paid at politics. |
| 1:04.3 | fm. |
| 1:04.8 | Hey everyone, welcome to the politics podcast. I'm Brian Boiler. I'm Matthew Glacius. |
| 1:14.7 | This week, I feel like, I feel like the title and description of this week's episode |
| 1:19.8 | should just be fuck. |
| 1:23.0 | Or like, fuck, really? |
| 1:25.6 | Well, something like that. |
| 1:28.9 | Short version is Joe Biden's losing five of six swing states in New York Times as marquee poll. |
| 1:35.9 | He's losing some of them, the Sunbelt states, by what seemed like implausible margins, but |
| 1:40.9 | if they're real margins, they seem like insurmountable. |
| 1:45.1 | And he's doing this as the Democrats who run those states are all popular. |
| 1:51.1 | The Senate Democratic incumbents there are poised to win. |
... |
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