Have more than 100 private schools been forced to close because of VAT?
More or Less
BBC
4.6 • 3.5K Ratings
🗓️ 14 January 2026
⏱️ 29 minutes
🧾️ Download transcript
Summary
Tim Harford investigates some of the numbers in the news. This week: A headline in the Mail says more than 100 private schools have closed since Labour came to power and ended the VAT exemption for private schools. Is that number right?
Is it true that when Covid hit the UK, a one-week delay in imposing lockdown led to 23,000 deaths?
Do 10 million families rely on X as their main source of news? That’s what government spokesperson Baroness Ruth Anderson said in the House of Lords, but is it correct?
s there really a “quiet revival” of Christian worship? Two YouGov polls found churchgoing had gone up by 50% between 2018 and 2024 in England and Wales. New polling data suggests otherwise.
If you’ve seen a number in the news you want the team on More or Less to have a look at, email moreorless@bbc.co.uk
Contributors: Professor Sir David Spiegelhalter, Emeritus Professor of Statistics in the Statistical Laboratory, University of Cambridge Professor Sir John Curtice, Senior Research Fellow at the National Centre for Social Research
Credits: Presenter: Tim Harford Reporters: Tom Colls and Nathan Gower Producers: Charlotte McDonald and Lizzy McNeill Production co-ordinator: Brenda Brown Sound mix: Gareth Jones Editor: Richard Vadon
Transcript
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| 0:00.0 | BBC Sounds, Music, Radio Podcasts. |
| 0:05.7 | Hello, you're about to listen to a BBC podcast, and I'm Ed Gamble, host of another BBC podcast, The Traitors Uncloaked. |
| 0:12.7 | But my show is available only on BBC Sounds, just like Ellis and John's Saturday bonus episodes, |
| 0:18.2 | The Pop Top Ten podcast with Scott Mills and Rylan, and Comedy Specials |
| 0:22.2 | from the likes of Harriet Kemsley, Susie Ruffle and Rommashranganathan. However, and maybe I'm |
| 0:27.3 | biased, it's really all about the traitors uncoaked. So for a whole bunch of exclusive scoops |
| 0:32.3 | and podcasts, listen only on BBC Sounds. Hello and welcome to more or less, your indefatigable guide to the numbers all around us in the news. |
| 0:41.3 | And in life, I'm Tim Harford. |
| 0:44.0 | This week, not one but two statistical national treasures, Sir John Curtis and Sir David Spiegelhalter. |
| 0:51.9 | And some big questions. |
| 0:53.7 | Is it true that when COVID hit the UK, |
| 0:56.8 | a one-week delay in imposing lockdown |
| 0:59.5 | led to 23,000 deaths? |
| 1:03.0 | Has the levying of VAT led to the closure of more than 100 private schools? |
| 1:08.7 | Is there really a quiet revival of Christian worship? And do more than |
| 1:14.1 | 10 million families rely on X as their main source of news? First, loyal listener Quentin got in touch |
| 1:22.2 | to ask about a number that's been doing the rounds in newspaper headlines recently. Here's an |
| 1:26.9 | example from the mail. |
| 1:28.6 | More than 100 private schools forced to close after Labor's controversial tax rate on fees. |
| 1:34.7 | The story claimed that... |
| 1:36.2 | A total of 105 independent schools have closed due to Labor's controversial VAT raid on fees. |
| 1:43.4 | In case you're wondering what a VAT raid is, I'm afraid it's not an exciting heist. |
... |
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