Polls and predictions for the midterm elections.

I'm Brian Selter and this is the Reliable Sources

our weekly chance to talk in depth with media leaders and newsmakers in between our

Sunday television broadcasts.

And this week I'm really interested in looking ahead to the midterms and the so-called blue wave that's expected to crest.

There's been a lot of interest and coverage of recent special elections and primaries and a lot of conversation about what the polls are showing.

I feel like poll is a dirty word these days in the wake of the 2016 election

but I have a surprise for you about what the polls have shown this year.

I'm joined by CNN's Harry Enten, he's our senior political writer and analyst,

our poll guru, among other things.

Oh, thank you.

And Harry, you said to me after Tuesday night's election, this most recent primary night

plus the Ohio 12 special election, you said it turns out the polls have been what spot on I don't

know if they've been spot on but they've certainly been actually more accurate

than usual right so the thing that I like to do is I like to go back in time

so we can make longitudinal comparisons.

And Special Election House polls, on average,

have been off, if we go back since 2004,

have been off by an average of about 5.2 percentage

points before this cycle. Now look at the House Special Election Polling this

year. How much has it has been off by an average of just four percentage points.

So in fact what we see in this cycle the House Special Election Polling has actually been

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