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Marketplace

Happy 247th birthday, USA! How’s that economy holding up?

Marketplace

Marketplace

Business, News

4.68.6K Ratings

🗓️ 4 July 2023

⏱️ 29 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

We know it sounds strange, but the Federal Reserve wants to see higher unemployment in Friday’s jobs report to show that its fight against inflation is working. Then, climate change isn’t making hurricanes more frequent, but it is making them more severe. What to expect from this year’s season. Plus, how a formerly enslaved man helped Black families build generational wealth. And later, feral cats for hire!

Transcript

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0:00.0

From all of us at Marketplace, we just want to say thank you to those who stepped up to join our community of Marketplace investors at the end of our budget year.

0:07.5

Your support empowers us to continue making everybody smarter about the economy and that means everything.

0:13.5

It is not too late to become a Marketplace investor, you know, just go to Marketplace.org slash donate and thanks again.

0:21.0

Happy 247th birthday USA. How's that economy holding up? From American public media, this is Marketplace.

0:41.0

In Baltimore, I'm Amy Scott, Inferchi Ristall. It's Tuesday, July 4th. Good to have you with us on this independent stay.

0:49.0

The Bureau of Labor Statistics headquarters on Massachusetts Avenue in Washington is of course closed for the federal holiday.

0:57.0

But later this week, that's where the economic action will be when the data cruncher released the latest jobs report for the month of June.

1:05.0

The economy's been adding on average about 340,000 jobs a month over the past year. And how strong the job market continues to be will help the Fed figure out its next move on interest rates later this month.

1:19.0

Fed Chair Jerome Powell has signaled the possibility of raising rates at the next two meetings in his ongoing fight to vanquish stubbornly high inflation.

1:28.0

Marketplace is elusive with troval as some economists with the Fed wants to see in the next jobs report.

1:34.0

When Fed policymakers set interest rates, they're looking at a whole lot of economic data.

1:40.0

Household survey data, you know, they still get financial market data, you know, survey professional forecasters.

1:48.0

Rice University economist Zach the Thune. They're most focused right now on labor market data. You know, we still see the labor market running very hot.

1:58.0

Hot indeed.

2:00.0

Last month, 339,000 net new jobs was probably higher than they had hoped morning console economist John Lear.

2:09.0

We'd like to see that number trending lower from 100 to 150,000 new positions says David Wessel with the Brookings Institution.

2:17.0

He says the Fed also wants a slowing down of wage increases. So they would like to see more people coming into the labor market.

2:25.0

Increased labor supply. They would like to see less demand for labor. That is employers creating fewer jobs.

2:32.0

Tatevek Sekbosjan with Texas a and M University says slightly higher unemployment would also signal a much desired cooling, which she admits is an odd concept for her students.

2:44.0

When I teach, I mean, this is always a problem, right? I mean, you go and say I mean, you would prefer a bit higher unemployment and the students look at you saying, you know, what are you talking about right.

2:53.0

But she says the Fed's goals are simple price stability and full employment.

2:58.0

We have inflation on the higher side relative to the historical standards, you know, and above expectations. And we have unemployment on the lower side and again below expectations, right?

...

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