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Animal Spirits Podcast

Half the Population (EP.38)

Animal Spirits Podcast

The Compound

Business News, News, Investing, Business

4.72.1K Ratings

🗓️ 18 July 2018

⏱️ 44 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

The recession signal everyone is talking about, Amazon somehow being touted as a value stock, the paradox of choice in the fund world, houses are getting bigger, Time Warner is going to ruin HBO, how tariffs are affecting the lobster industry and much more. Find complete shownotes on our blogs... Ben Carlson’s A Wealth of Common Sense Michael Batnick’s The Irrelevant Investor Like us on Facebook And feel free to shoot us an email at animalspiritspod@gmail.com with any feedback, questions, recommendations, or ideas for future topics of conversation. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Transcript

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0:00.0

Welcome to Animal Spirits, the podcast that takes a completely different look at markets and investing,

0:06.4

hosted by Michael Baddick and Ben Carlson, two guys who study the markets as a passion and invest for all the right reasons.

0:14.6

Michael Batnik and Ben Carlson work for Rit Holt's wealth management.

0:18.0

All opinions expressed by Michael and Ben or any podcast guests are solely their own opinions and do not reflect the opinion of

0:23.9

Ritt Holt's wealth management. This podcast is for informational purposes only and

0:27.8

should not be relied upon for investment decisions. Clients of Ritthold's

0:31.0

wealth management may maintain positions in the securities discussed in this podcast

0:35.7

Welcome to Animal Spirits with Michael and Ben Ben what are we looking at here?

0:40.0

The big topic to juror this week is the yield curve. So Jeff Gunlock of

0:45.0

Double Line Funds was in Barron's this week. I think it was the Baron's Roundtable.

0:48.6

I don't know a lot of people are talking about this and he says we're getting closer to

0:52.2

a recession and so here's a

0:54.1

quote from Gunnlock. The one indicator that is somewhat negative is the

0:56.5

yield curve which has been flattening pretty relentlessly for the past year or two

0:59.9

as the Fed has been tightening

1:03.0

yield curve isn't sending any message about a recession and that

1:05.8

couldn't be more wrong.

1:06.8

In fact, the rate's so low, the yield curve is even stronger than usual.

1:10.8

So he says we're getting closer to recession when the curve goes flat from the two-year

1:14.6

to the ten-year meaning that yields are identical the recession risk is at least a

1:18.7

year away.

1:19.7

So all right so lot to unpack here.

...

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